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Video Traffic Expected to Account for 74% of 5G Mobile Data Traffic by 2024
November 4, 2019
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In the US 5G comes in three ‘bands’, low, medium, and high (millimeter waves), each with its own characteristics, and set of potential applications.  The table below shows the frequencies in each ‘band”, and the two most important characteristics of each.  The lower bands can cover larger distances but have the least bandwidth capacity, meaning they can handle a smaller number of simultaneous connections than higher bands, and high band (millimeter) signals can only travel short distances from transmission point but can carry a large number of individual sessions.  Ultimate traffic allocations are based on bandwidth.
 
Table 1: US 5G Frequency Bands

Source: GSM

Applications are the key selling point for 5G although mobile (smartphone) high-speed downloads get much of the press concerning 5G, consumer mobile communication is only one part of the application spectrum for 5G.  IoT will be a key beneficiary, which as of 2018 was estimated to have 8.6b connections, that could expand at a 17% CAGR through 2024, at which there would be 22.3b connections.  While ~87.2% of those (2018) connections are short range, with the balance using cellular and WANs, by 2024 short range connections will drop to ~80% as utilities, medical device companies, and agribusiness add sensing devices as part of a wide IoT systems.  Smart sensors for traffic and pedestrian flow will need at least medium bandwidth, and in-building IoT will use high frequency spectrum. Mobile operators will control 5G deployments outdoors, but given the limited range of MmWave and its ability to be blocked by simple structures, indoor deployments will be specific to the application or coverage area and are expected to continue to represent the source or end-point for ~80% of mobile data traffic.  Small cell units placed indoors will be the basis for private networks, similar to commercial Wi-Fi systems and such co-location will provide power and backhaul for 5G millimeter without the expense of adding such infrastructure.  Test systems with 5G millimeter cells placed alongside existing Wi-Fi, using medium frequency (5Gbps) were able to achieve ~98% downlink and ~99% uplink coverage[1]. Large indoor venues, such as stadiums and convention centers that currently use dense LTE or Wi-Fi, are have limited bandwidth that constraining the number of concurrent.  Co-locating small cell 5G with existing Wi-Fi and cellular nodes, burst rates of 5Gbps and ~95% down and upload rates have been achieved[2] in those venues, and Qualcomm has shown that only 10 5G NR millimeter small cells were able to cover an airport concourse of ~160,000 ft2, with a median throughput of ~4.2Gbps. But back haul capacity will remain an issue under all of these circumstances.
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IoT and indoor talk and data traffic are applications that can be enhanced by 5G, but the growth of video traffic (~34% over the next 5 years) is expected to account for 74% of mobile data traffic by 2024, up from ~60% last year.  The expectation for 2024 video data traffic would equal 131 Exabyte of data/month or more than 6 billion hours of compressed 4K video being downloaded each month, with mobile gaming, where low latency and high-speed are essential, accounting for ~45% of that market. VR, AR, or VLOG, video traffic will continue to grow and 5G will be able to support that growth, particularly at millimeter wavelengths. 
 
 Figure 1: Small Cell by Environment (Left)  Small Cell Indoor vs. Outdoor (Right)

​Source: Qorvo