Infinite Possibilities of OLEDs
Notice
Musing From an OLED Advocate
Why Can’t Anyone Count or Forecast AR/VR Headsets?
VR headsets have been experimented with for more than 50 years, but in 1994
SEGA released the first commercial device, the SEGA VR-1, a motion simulator arcade machine and VictorMaxx released a VR headset called CyberMaxx.
In 1995, Nintendo launched the Virtual Boy console which played 3D monochrome video games. It was the first portable console to display 3D graphics. But it was a commercial failure due to:
Affordable home VR headsets were released:
In 2012, Luckey launched a Kickstarter campaign for the Oculus Rift which raised $2.4 million.
Figure 11:Oculus Rift
Source: Oculus
In 2014, Facebook bought the Oculus VR company for $2 billion. This was a defining moment in VR’s history because VR gained momentum rapidly after this. Sony announced that they were working on Project Morpheus, a VR headset for the PlayStation 4 (PS4). Google released the Cardboard – a low-cost and do-it-yourself stereoscopic viewer for smartphones. Samsung announced the Samsung Gear VR, a headset that uses a Samsung Galaxy smartphone as a viewer. Cratesmith, an independent developer, recreated a hoverboard scene from Back to the Future by pairing the Oculus Rift with a Wii’s balance board.
By 2015, VR possibilities started becoming widely available to the general public, for example:
By 2016 hundreds of companies were developing VR products. Most of the headsets had dynamic binaural audio. Haptic interfaces were underdeveloped. Haptic interfaces are systems that allow humans to interact with a computer using their touch and movements – like the Gloveone gloves that were being developed. This meant that handsets were typically button-operated. HTC released its HTC VIVE SteamVR headset. This was the first commercial release of a headset with sensor-based tracking which allowed users to move freely in a space.
Figure 12: HTC Vive
Source: HTC
Each subsequent year, new products were released and in 2023, Apple’s Vision Pro was announced and a potential Meta high-end (Project Funston) or “affordable”, meaning lower priced than the Quest 3 was released, and the possibility of Samsung’s first VR headset since 2019, the potential for improving VR headset sales is obvious, although the expected unit volumes from Apple’s relatively high-priced Vision pro headset are expected to be under 300,000 units, at least on the first production run.
The common theme each year was that the issues surrounding commercial viability had been solved and that VR/AR sales would grow exponentially. But it never happened as Q4’23 was the eighth consecutive quarter of Y/Y reductions in shipment volume. On an annual basis, the market has experienced consecutive declines, marking a stark departure from historical trends tracked since 1995. In 2022, shipment volume plummeted 16.5% compared to the previous year, and preliminary results suggest an additional 13.9% contraction in 2023 compared to 2022. This downturn, unparalleled in the industry's recorded history, reflects the aftermath of the significant surge in PC purchases driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2024, the estimates range from 18m to 25m, with no justification, other than the possibility that 300K Vision Pro’s will stimulate demand of other devices. The VR headset space is changing as larger CE companies begin to make bets against Meta, whose lower-priced headsets have dominated the market. Skyworth, TCL and Xiaomi are expected to release VR headsets this year, along with DPVR owned by Tik-Toc owner ByteDance, a top 5 VR headset player, and a number of new and updated offerings from smaller or new VR manufacturers. There are unannounced but rumored headsets from Sony and others. In 2023, sales of headsets were estimated between 7.7m and 15.0m, a 100% difference, indicating that there was no common methodology. The following figure shows the 4 leading researcher’s count of 2023 headsets and their 2024 forecasts.
Figure 13:AR/VR Shipments and Shipment Forecast by Researchers
Source: Companies
VR headsets have been experimented with for more than 50 years, but in 1994
SEGA released the first commercial device, the SEGA VR-1, a motion simulator arcade machine and VictorMaxx released a VR headset called CyberMaxx.
In 1995, Nintendo launched the Virtual Boy console which played 3D monochrome video games. It was the first portable console to display 3D graphics. But it was a commercial failure due to:
- The lack of color graphics
- The lack of software support
- It wasn’t comfortable to use
Affordable home VR headsets were released:
- Virtual IO released the I-Glasses.
- VFX1 Headgear was released by Forte.
In 2012, Luckey launched a Kickstarter campaign for the Oculus Rift which raised $2.4 million.
Figure 11:Oculus Rift
Source: Oculus
In 2014, Facebook bought the Oculus VR company for $2 billion. This was a defining moment in VR’s history because VR gained momentum rapidly after this. Sony announced that they were working on Project Morpheus, a VR headset for the PlayStation 4 (PS4). Google released the Cardboard – a low-cost and do-it-yourself stereoscopic viewer for smartphones. Samsung announced the Samsung Gear VR, a headset that uses a Samsung Galaxy smartphone as a viewer. Cratesmith, an independent developer, recreated a hoverboard scene from Back to the Future by pairing the Oculus Rift with a Wii’s balance board.
By 2015, VR possibilities started becoming widely available to the general public, for example:
- The Wall Street Journal launched a VR roller coaster that followed the ups and downs of the Nasdaq Stock Market.
- The BBC created a 360-degree video where users view a Syrian migrant camp.
- The Washington Post released a VR experience of the Oval Office at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner.
- RYOT, a media company, exhibited Confinement, a short VR film about solitary confinement in US prisons.
- Etc.
By 2016 hundreds of companies were developing VR products. Most of the headsets had dynamic binaural audio. Haptic interfaces were underdeveloped. Haptic interfaces are systems that allow humans to interact with a computer using their touch and movements – like the Gloveone gloves that were being developed. This meant that handsets were typically button-operated. HTC released its HTC VIVE SteamVR headset. This was the first commercial release of a headset with sensor-based tracking which allowed users to move freely in a space.
Figure 12: HTC Vive
Source: HTC
Each subsequent year, new products were released and in 2023, Apple’s Vision Pro was announced and a potential Meta high-end (Project Funston) or “affordable”, meaning lower priced than the Quest 3 was released, and the possibility of Samsung’s first VR headset since 2019, the potential for improving VR headset sales is obvious, although the expected unit volumes from Apple’s relatively high-priced Vision pro headset are expected to be under 300,000 units, at least on the first production run.
The common theme each year was that the issues surrounding commercial viability had been solved and that VR/AR sales would grow exponentially. But it never happened as Q4’23 was the eighth consecutive quarter of Y/Y reductions in shipment volume. On an annual basis, the market has experienced consecutive declines, marking a stark departure from historical trends tracked since 1995. In 2022, shipment volume plummeted 16.5% compared to the previous year, and preliminary results suggest an additional 13.9% contraction in 2023 compared to 2022. This downturn, unparalleled in the industry's recorded history, reflects the aftermath of the significant surge in PC purchases driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2024, the estimates range from 18m to 25m, with no justification, other than the possibility that 300K Vision Pro’s will stimulate demand of other devices. The VR headset space is changing as larger CE companies begin to make bets against Meta, whose lower-priced headsets have dominated the market. Skyworth, TCL and Xiaomi are expected to release VR headsets this year, along with DPVR owned by Tik-Toc owner ByteDance, a top 5 VR headset player, and a number of new and updated offerings from smaller or new VR manufacturers. There are unannounced but rumored headsets from Sony and others. In 2023, sales of headsets were estimated between 7.7m and 15.0m, a 100% difference, indicating that there was no common methodology. The following figure shows the 4 leading researcher’s count of 2023 headsets and their 2024 forecasts.
Figure 13:AR/VR Shipments and Shipment Forecast by Researchers
Source: Companies
Leftovers
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Musing on Data Points
Q4’23 PC Shipments Down Only 2.7% Y/Y; 2023 Shipments Down 27.8% Y/Y "Across the major technology categories, the PC market has experienced the biggest roller coaster in terms of ups and downs over the past four years,” according to IDC'. --"While the market was down again in 2023 in terms of shipments, there is a lot of positive momentum for PCs looking forward. While AI has clearly captured everyone's attention, it shouldn't be overlooked that 2024 is expected to be a strong year for commercial PC refresh, and the advancements around gaming PCs continues to drive market excitement." The top companies in the industry remain largely unchanged, and just like the overall market, they too are experiencing unusual quarterly growth swings. Given that Q4’23 shipments were down 7.6% compared to 2023 shipments that were down 27.8% Y/Y, there is some optimism that the industry is ready to start growing again. Table 2: Q4’23 PC Shipments, Share, Growth by OEM Source: IDC Table 3: 2023 PC Shipments, Share, Growth by OEM Source: IDC Apple Passes Samsung in Smartphone Shipments by 7m in 2023 and 27m in Q4’23 As predicted, Apple passed Samsung as the leading supplier of smartphone in 2023, the 1st time Samsung was not #1 in over 10 years. Apple’s Q423 shipments were 80.5m, 27m more than Samsung. For the year, Apple’s share was 21.3% compared to Samsung’s 20.7%.For the year Samsung’s shipments were down 20m while Apple was up 27m. Some optimism in smartphones overall was generated by the Q4’23 results which were down only 0.9% compared to the full year shipments down 24.6%. Table 4: Q4’23 Smartphone Shipments, Share, Growth by OEM Source: IDC Table 5: 2023 Smartphone Shipments, Share, Growth by OEM Source: Mizuho Musing on Economics
Musing on Financials
Musing on Foldables
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Musing on Materials
Musin on AR/VR
Musing on MicroLEDs
Musing on Production
Musing on Technology
Automotive/Transportation
IT
Smartphones
Transportation
Continental Announces New Approach Modularization of Vehicle High-Performance Computers_06/25/2023
Continental Announces New Approach Modularization of Vehicle High-Performance Computers_06/25/2023
TVs
VR/AR
Sunic Systems Signed a Contract with SeeYa_06/25/2023
The AR/VR Battle Has Only Started_06/25/2023
The AR/VR Battle Has Only Started_06/25/2023
Wearables
Fraunhofer Institute Demonstrated 28-Nanometer Backplane Technology On 300mm Wafers for OLEDoS Display_05/22/2023
Will Lithographic Deposition Systems Enable OLED to Compete in High Pixel Density Applications?_05/22/2023
Q3'2021 Updated Data
- OLED Fab and LCD Fabs Installed and Planned->
- Smartphones->
- Annual Shipments by OEM
- Quarterly Shipments by OEM
- Quarterly Revenue for Top 10 OEMs
- Quarterly ASP for Top 10 OEMs
- Annual OLED and LCD Panel Shipments by Panel Maker
Any Questions, Please Contact Us at [email protected]
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Barry Young
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