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Musing-Weekly Newsletter

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UDC Post Strong Q221 but Cautionary 2021 Outlook
 
UDC reported another strong quarter in Q221, as revenues were $129.7m down 3.2% sequentially and up 123.6% Y/Y. The Q220 was one of the worst in UDC’s history and reflected ~$20m revenue that was pushed forward into Q120. 
Material sales were $77.4m  down 2.5% sequentially and up 142.6% Y/Y. Green emitter sales were $57.8m, down 4.5% sequentially and up 138.8% Y/Y. Red emitter sales were $19.5m, up 2.1% sequentially and up 160.0% Y/Y. Royalty and license fees were $48.2m,  down 5.3% sequentially and up 115.2% Y/Y. The material gross margins were 67%, compared to 74% in Q121 and the 68% in Q220.  With H121 revenues of $263m, UDC guided 2021 sales in the range of $530 million to $560m or a revenue growth of approximately 30%. The company did not explain the difference in the pattern of red emitter sales, nor was it asked.
 
Looking at UDC revenue growth vs. the OLED industry, we compared percentage of capacity growth vs. UDC revenue, which appears to have a very strong correlation as shown in the next figure.
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​In terms of the outlook, UDC’s optimistic figure of $560m has the first half at 46% of 2021 total revenue. In the last 2 of the last 5 years, UDC 2nd half growth was greater than the 2021 outlook. Duk Sa, covered in the next article, is an analog for UDC selling the high volume, HTL, HIL material outlooked Q321 revenue up +37.8% sequentially and +35.7% Y/Y. 
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