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UBI SDC’s OLED Shipment in 2020 to be Only 385.5m Panels
UBI projected that Samsung Display will ship 156M flexible OLEDs and 229.5M rigid OLEDs for a total of 385.5M panels in 2020. UBI continues to report questionable statistics as most researchers put Samsung Mobile’s 2020 smartphone shipments at 290m to 300m. Given a modest allotment for replacement panels and sequencing, OEMs buy 10%-15% more panels than they ship. Using 10% overage, UBI has Samsung Mobile shipping only 135m OLED based smartphones, putting the remaining 165m with LCDs. Samsung typically ships 25% to 30% of their phones with LCDs, so there is a big mismatch in the UBI forecast. Another issue is the UBI panel forecast for Apple, which seems to include only the iPhone 12. As shown in Table 2, Apple is expected to ship 135 smartphones with OLEDs, which would put their CY 2020 buy at over 150m.
Table 1: 2020 OLED Panel Shipments
UBI projected that Samsung Display will ship 156M flexible OLEDs and 229.5M rigid OLEDs for a total of 385.5M panels in 2020. UBI continues to report questionable statistics as most researchers put Samsung Mobile’s 2020 smartphone shipments at 290m to 300m. Given a modest allotment for replacement panels and sequencing, OEMs buy 10%-15% more panels than they ship. Using 10% overage, UBI has Samsung Mobile shipping only 135m OLED based smartphones, putting the remaining 165m with LCDs. Samsung typically ships 25% to 30% of their phones with LCDs, so there is a big mismatch in the UBI forecast. Another issue is the UBI panel forecast for Apple, which seems to include only the iPhone 12. As shown in Table 2, Apple is expected to ship 135 smartphones with OLEDs, which would put their CY 2020 buy at over 150m.
Table 1: 2020 OLED Panel Shipments
We expect Samsung Display to ship 500m to 550m displays in 2020, 40% more than UBI’s recent forecast.