Vertical Divider
TV Market Expected to Absorb the Widest Range of Panel Technologies
The TV market is about to get crowded as new technologies target the advanced TV segment. Joining QD LCDs and OLEDs will be Mini LED LCDs, QD OLEDs, Micro LEDs and possible QNEDs according to Omdia. And this listing does not include Hisense’s recently released dual panel LCD. The Mini LED LCD category also includes QD. Omdia expects the advanced TV market to grow from 13m in 2020 to 18m in 2021 and 31m by 2025. OLED growth in 2021 is limited to LGD’s production and mix and could reach as much as 7.5m vs. Omdia’s 5.8m forecast. In 2022, Samsung will start shipping QD-OLEDs and will have the capacity to ship 1.5m TV panels if their yields get to 90%. The major change for OLEDs promises to be China, where both BOE and CSoT are expected to have fully operational Gen 8.5 TV panel fabs by 2024. By then Samsung should have decided whether they will expand QD-OLEDs, switch to QNEDs or rethink the whole $12B project. Much depends on whether Samsung can execute on the development of a high efficiency blue emitter, which would cut the number of emitting layers down from 4 to 1 with consequential cost reductions.
Table 5: Advanced TV Set by Technology
The TV market is about to get crowded as new technologies target the advanced TV segment. Joining QD LCDs and OLEDs will be Mini LED LCDs, QD OLEDs, Micro LEDs and possible QNEDs according to Omdia. And this listing does not include Hisense’s recently released dual panel LCD. The Mini LED LCD category also includes QD. Omdia expects the advanced TV market to grow from 13m in 2020 to 18m in 2021 and 31m by 2025. OLED growth in 2021 is limited to LGD’s production and mix and could reach as much as 7.5m vs. Omdia’s 5.8m forecast. In 2022, Samsung will start shipping QD-OLEDs and will have the capacity to ship 1.5m TV panels if their yields get to 90%. The major change for OLEDs promises to be China, where both BOE and CSoT are expected to have fully operational Gen 8.5 TV panel fabs by 2024. By then Samsung should have decided whether they will expand QD-OLEDs, switch to QNEDs or rethink the whole $12B project. Much depends on whether Samsung can execute on the development of a high efficiency blue emitter, which would cut the number of emitting layers down from 4 to 1 with consequential cost reductions.
Table 5: Advanced TV Set by Technology
Omdia’s OLED TV forecast for 2025 is 10.5m should be evaluated using the following criteria:
Figure 1: Advanced TV Forecast and Share by Technology and Size
- LGD a current capacity of ~7m panels/month and will like increase that by 1.5m, when it funds a 30,000 substrate/month addition in Paju in 2023
- Samsung’s QD-OLED fab has a capacity of ~1m panels/year and could by 2025, triple that amount
- CSoT and BOE plan to have TV fabs with 50,000 substrates/month adding 4-5m panels/year by 2024.
- LGD also has its delayed Gen 10.5 fab awaiting equipment.
Figure 1: Advanced TV Forecast and Share by Technology and Size
Figure 2: TV Panel Shipments vs. Set Shipments
Figure 3: Emerging Display Technology TV Shipment Forecast
Figure 4:WOLED TV Supply/Demand and Projected OLED TV Investment
Figure 5: QD-OLED Evolution
Figure 6: QD OLED TV Display Demand vs. Simulated Production Volume
