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To Fold or Not to Fold
The glowing reception of Samsung’s Z Fold 3 and Z Flip 3 have raised stakes for Apple’s upcoming decision on whether to release an iPhone Fold. Samsung success makes it clear that to be in the Android flagship smartphone market, a foldable is required, lest the risk of losing the best customers. But what about the iPhone, since making the crossover from iOS to Android rarely occurs.
We know Apple is developing foldable and has purchased foldable displays from Samsung to properly test and qualify such a device. But the company could choose to simply skip this generation of foldable iPhones and wait for the next iteration. Given the current environment, the max number of foldable in 2025 is expected to 75m. Apple has a ~40% share of the upper end, so that would be 30m or 7.5m per year, only 3.25% of their annual shipments. Apple's mantra is to 'think different' but it can't ignore trends entirely, sometimes having to adjust to demand. A good example is the removal of the home button long after the display of Android phones went edge to edge. However, there are good reasons why Apple may want to avoid a foldable iPhone. Apple took several years longer than its competitors to release a smartphone with a significantly larger screen size, that being the iPhone 11 Pro Max which launched in 2019.
In the Android world, a big screen was fairly common by 2015, with the term 'phablet' used to describe displays that were reminiscent of the experience when using a tablet. That was a bit of an exaggeration at the time but has become a reality in recent years with the emergence of the foldable phone. Apple doesn't leap on every new trend, particularly when its participation might conflict with its product lineup or otherwise alter long-term goals. The excitement generated by foldable display for use in folding phones makes sense and is certainly a novel idea, leading some to expect Apple to be eager to bring this technology to the iPhone. It would allow the small form factor iPhone that Apple has always championed, while providing greater usable screen space at a moment's notice, facilitating easier video editing, multi-user FaceTime, and split-screen multitasking similar to an iPad. What could be wrong with that? Apple is even rumored to be testing flexible screens, so perhaps a folding iPhone is being considered. However, Apple researches plenty of products that are never made, just like the AirPower charging mat.
One of the reasons why an iPhone that can unfold and double its width seems unlikely is that it might conflict with the iPad mini sales. Apple's smallest tablet is rumored to be getting an update this year, so Apple still likes this form factor for an iPad. Apple thinks in the long-term and even though its iPhone 12 mini had relatively low sales compared to the larger models, it is expected to launch an iPhone 13 mini in the same diminutive size used last year. If the iPhone 13 mini flops, this will demonstrate the demand for small phones is currently too low to justify exploration, potentially crushing any interest in an iPhone that folds vertically as well.
Foldable screens are difficult to produce, and the hinges are prone to failure, as demonstrated by such high-profile manufacturers as Samsung and Motorola that struggled and failed on their first attempts. Apple is highly unlikely to want to go down that road, possibly preferring a very different solution for a bigger, portable viewscreen that aligns with its long-term plans. Looking to the future, a 7.6-inch smartphone would look tiny when compared with a 50-inch virtual screen that floats in front of the user when wearing AR glasses. This might sound like a pipe dream, but Apple is very serious about augmented reality and CEO Tim Cook often comments on the belief that this will be a transformative technology. If Apple is anywhere near producing the rumored Apple Glass, it would make less sense for the company that is known to 'think different' to follow in the footsteps of others, trying to play catch-up with a copycat product that could end up damaging its reputation and cutting into iPad sales. Apple might be researching a foldable iPhone, but it won't make one unless it has to.
The glowing reception of Samsung’s Z Fold 3 and Z Flip 3 have raised stakes for Apple’s upcoming decision on whether to release an iPhone Fold. Samsung success makes it clear that to be in the Android flagship smartphone market, a foldable is required, lest the risk of losing the best customers. But what about the iPhone, since making the crossover from iOS to Android rarely occurs.
We know Apple is developing foldable and has purchased foldable displays from Samsung to properly test and qualify such a device. But the company could choose to simply skip this generation of foldable iPhones and wait for the next iteration. Given the current environment, the max number of foldable in 2025 is expected to 75m. Apple has a ~40% share of the upper end, so that would be 30m or 7.5m per year, only 3.25% of their annual shipments. Apple's mantra is to 'think different' but it can't ignore trends entirely, sometimes having to adjust to demand. A good example is the removal of the home button long after the display of Android phones went edge to edge. However, there are good reasons why Apple may want to avoid a foldable iPhone. Apple took several years longer than its competitors to release a smartphone with a significantly larger screen size, that being the iPhone 11 Pro Max which launched in 2019.
In the Android world, a big screen was fairly common by 2015, with the term 'phablet' used to describe displays that were reminiscent of the experience when using a tablet. That was a bit of an exaggeration at the time but has become a reality in recent years with the emergence of the foldable phone. Apple doesn't leap on every new trend, particularly when its participation might conflict with its product lineup or otherwise alter long-term goals. The excitement generated by foldable display for use in folding phones makes sense and is certainly a novel idea, leading some to expect Apple to be eager to bring this technology to the iPhone. It would allow the small form factor iPhone that Apple has always championed, while providing greater usable screen space at a moment's notice, facilitating easier video editing, multi-user FaceTime, and split-screen multitasking similar to an iPad. What could be wrong with that? Apple is even rumored to be testing flexible screens, so perhaps a folding iPhone is being considered. However, Apple researches plenty of products that are never made, just like the AirPower charging mat.
One of the reasons why an iPhone that can unfold and double its width seems unlikely is that it might conflict with the iPad mini sales. Apple's smallest tablet is rumored to be getting an update this year, so Apple still likes this form factor for an iPad. Apple thinks in the long-term and even though its iPhone 12 mini had relatively low sales compared to the larger models, it is expected to launch an iPhone 13 mini in the same diminutive size used last year. If the iPhone 13 mini flops, this will demonstrate the demand for small phones is currently too low to justify exploration, potentially crushing any interest in an iPhone that folds vertically as well.
Foldable screens are difficult to produce, and the hinges are prone to failure, as demonstrated by such high-profile manufacturers as Samsung and Motorola that struggled and failed on their first attempts. Apple is highly unlikely to want to go down that road, possibly preferring a very different solution for a bigger, portable viewscreen that aligns with its long-term plans. Looking to the future, a 7.6-inch smartphone would look tiny when compared with a 50-inch virtual screen that floats in front of the user when wearing AR glasses. This might sound like a pipe dream, but Apple is very serious about augmented reality and CEO Tim Cook often comments on the belief that this will be a transformative technology. If Apple is anywhere near producing the rumored Apple Glass, it would make less sense for the company that is known to 'think different' to follow in the footsteps of others, trying to play catch-up with a copycat product that could end up damaging its reputation and cutting into iPad sales. Apple might be researching a foldable iPhone, but it won't make one unless it has to.
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