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Q121 iPhones in China Show Strong Growth
Apple continues to show strong growth in China, due to 1) The late launch of the expanded iPhone 12 lineup; 2) An easier Y/Y comparison base for the entire market, 3) the fall off of Huawei’s sales
Table 1: China’s Smartphone Shipments 2021 vs. 2020
Apple continues to show strong growth in China, due to 1) The late launch of the expanded iPhone 12 lineup; 2) An easier Y/Y comparison base for the entire market, 3) the fall off of Huawei’s sales
- There's exceptional market growth, even for January (before coronavirus). The overall market grew 127.6% year-to-date.
- The Apple iPhone beat the market handily as the company grew share significantly. The iPhone grew 184-189.5% year-to-date, and an amazing 320%-330% in February (helped by the Covid-19 comparison base).
Table 1: China’s Smartphone Shipments 2021 vs. 2020
Overall, these increases are exceptional for Apple. If Apple just sold the same number of iPhones in March 2021 as it did in March 2020, it would finish the quarter with around 10.6-11.5 million iPhones sold in China alone. That would compare to 5.6-6.3 million sold in Q2 FY2020, for 83-91% year-on-year growth. Should Apple grow 25% in March, less than half what it grew in February, that would come to 11.3-12.2 million iPhones. Or 22%-23.5% of a 52 million Q2 FY2021 iPhone consensus, vs. just 15.7% of the 40 million iPhones sold in Q2 FY2020.
Table 2: China’s Smartphone Shipments 2020 vs. 2019
Table 2: China’s Smartphone Shipments 2020 vs. 2019
iPhone sales so far in China during Q2 FY2021 are on track to single-handedly represent half of the entire 30% growth expected for the whole worldwide iPhone line in Q2 FY2021. It's possible that China is strong enough to produce a positive iPhone surprise in Q2 FY2021. The strong mobile phone market is putting inflationary pressure on components. For instance, the DXI Index shows how DRAM prices have been behaving , literally off the scale.
Apple iPhone sales in China are probably enough to drive an upside surprise on iPhone sales in the quarter (vs. expectations). Although Apple is growing faster than the overall mobile phone market, the mobile phone market is China is also growing extremely fast, compared not just to 2020 but also to 2019. The China smartphone growth is putting upward pressure on some component prices and the chance that margins might see some pressure looking forward.
Figure 1: China’s Smartphone Shipments
Apple iPhone sales in China are probably enough to drive an upside surprise on iPhone sales in the quarter (vs. expectations). Although Apple is growing faster than the overall mobile phone market, the mobile phone market is China is also growing extremely fast, compared not just to 2020 but also to 2019. The China smartphone growth is putting upward pressure on some component prices and the chance that margins might see some pressure looking forward.
Figure 1: China’s Smartphone Shipments
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