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Q121 iPhone Shipments to Reach 56m-62m
 
Wedbush's supply chain checks in Asia indicates three weeks of no changes to builds or demand globally, and no issues arising from current global semiconductor shortages, prompting an iPhone’ Q121 forecast in the 56M-62M range. Analyst Daniel Ives thinks June quarter builds are basically unchanged in the mid-40M range, meaning the firm's supercycle thesis is playing out in the first half of this year. The FY2021 220m forecast  could go "north of 240M" or even 250M units, which would break the record of 231M units sold in fiscal 2015.

• Wedbush estimates 350M of 950M iPhones worldwide are in the window of an upgrade opportunity, marking an "unprecedented supercycle upgrade cycle."
• The iPhone 13 launch is set for the third week in September, though ongoing tweaks could push it into early October.
• Initial supply chain builds are pointing to the 100M-unit range, compared to initial iPhone 12 reads of 80M units. (That's 25M-30M iPhone 13 builds for the September quarter and 70M-75M builds for the December quarter.)
• Ives says there's increased confidence that the iPhone 13's top storage option will double space (a 1 TB storage option, vs. a 512GB capacity in the highest Pro line) and feature enhanced Lidar across the line.

 

Source: Wedbush