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Production of QD/OLED Panels Could Reach 3.5m by 2024
October 28, 2019
 
Samsung Display’s plan for bringing its QD/OLED panels to mass production is likely to result in a major confidence builder for the OLED TV industry.  With LG Display forecasting 3.5m OLED TV panels in 2020, 6.8m in 2021 and 10m in 2022, it is possible that the total for OLED TVs could reach 13m in 2023. In addition, both BOE and CSoT are expected to be producing OLED TV panels in that timeframe.
 
The following depicts the basic assumptions we used to determine the QD/OLED production
 
The QD/OLED project consists of the conversion of two Samsung Display LCD fabs, L8-1 & L8-2. Each of the Gen 8.5 fabs will be developed in two phases:

• Phase 1 – 30,000 sheets/month
• Phase 2 -- 10,000 sheets/month

• Both fabs will be equipped to produce using MMG (Multi-Mode Glass)
• Ramp times for equipment delivery and installation are expected to be 12-18 months
• Initial mass production dates are:
  • Q1 Phase 1 -- January 2021
  • Q1 Phase 2 -- October 2021
  • Q2 Phase 1 -- July 2022
  • Q2 Phase 2 -- April 2023

SDC will likely run two MMG configurations, the first producing 3-65” and 2-48” panels, and the second producing 2-75” and 2-55”” panels.  
 
Allowing for a yield of 90% and utilization of 90%, plus a 4 month ramp, the production of TV panels by year is shown in the next table. 
 
Table 1: QD/OLED Projected Product Plan by Year

Source: OLED-A

​The start-up cycle may take longer than anticipated for the first phase as Samsung is relatively unfamiliar with IGZO and the IJP of organic emitters is new.