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OLED Supply/Demand for Small/Medium & Large Area Panels Moving in Opposite Directions
Supply/Demand for small/medium and large area OLED is going in opposite exact directions. For large area displays, the market for high end TVs is projected to grow at a 5-year CAGR of 23%, while OLED production capacity is growing at a CASGR of 17%. The difference can be attributed to the single source supply of LGD through 2023, when Samsung may start producing QD-OLED TV panels and then TCL in 2024 and BOE in 2025. During the timeframe, the demand for the high end TVs is increasing rapidly, with Mini LED backlights on LCDs expected to fill the vacuum.
Figure 1: OLED TV Panel Capacity, Shipments and Market Size
Supply/Demand for small/medium and large area OLED is going in opposite exact directions. For large area displays, the market for high end TVs is projected to grow at a 5-year CAGR of 23%, while OLED production capacity is growing at a CASGR of 17%. The difference can be attributed to the single source supply of LGD through 2023, when Samsung may start producing QD-OLED TV panels and then TCL in 2024 and BOE in 2025. During the timeframe, the demand for the high end TVs is increasing rapidly, with Mini LED backlights on LCDs expected to fill the vacuum.
Figure 1: OLED TV Panel Capacity, Shipments and Market Size
Figure 2: OLED TV Panel Capacity by Panel Maker
By way of contrast, smartphones are growing slowly with a projected 5-Year CAGR of ~3% and OLED capacity increasing at a CAGR of 17%. Some of the growth will be utilized by converting LTPS LCDs to OLEDs, but not enough to make a substantial dent in the excess supply, which will be caused by both an increase in Chines capacity and growing yields in the fabs of the Chine OLED panel makers.
Figure 3: OLED Small/Medium Panel and Area Capacity vs. Shipment Forecast
Figure 3: OLED Small/Medium Panel and Area Capacity vs. Shipment Forecast
