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New LCD TV Capacity Quantified by IHS
August 20, 2018
 
Planned new factories will increase large display panel production capacity by 31 percent or 77.7M square meters from 2018 to 2021. However, based on the current demand forecast, there will be about 49 million square meters of capacity in the pipeline more than the market requires in 2021. The supply/demand glut level is expected to continue to increase from 12 percent in 2018 to 23 percent in 2021, remaining well above 10 percent or what is modeled to be a balanced market.  Some panel makers may be forced to reduce utilization rates, while some planned capacity may never be built,” said David Hsieh, senior director of displays at IHS Markit. “Furthermore, in the next few years, legacy factory restructuring will likely accelerate. For the TFT LCD industry to return to a balanced supply/demand level, multiple Gen 5, Gen 6 and even Gen 8 factories will likely need to be shut down.” “Oversupply is not the end of the crystal cycle. The industry has a long history of dynamically adjusting itself to balance supply and demand,” Hsieh said. “The process may create many challenges for supply chain companies. However, the delayed expansion of new factories, the restructuring of legacy fabs and the potential for faster demand growth spurred by lower panel prices will help the LCD industry to eventually return to equilibrium.”
 
Figure 1: Large TFT LCD Supply Demand and Glut

Source: IHS