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Musings from a Virtual DisplayWeek
 
SID did a marvelous job putting on a virtual conference for the first time with very little planning time. Sure, there were glitches, but for the most part the availability of slides from the Business Conference and the Symposium has advantages over an in-person session. The exhibits were dreadful, and it will take some real creativity to make a virtual exhibit worth attending. 
 
The start of the Business Conference was full of market researchers trying to explain the year of Covid-19.  But none were as prescient as David Hsieh’s first slide in his presentation, Top 10 Display Topics in 2020-2021. David is The Senior Director of Omdia’s Informa Group (formally IHS) 
 
​Table 1: Flat Panel Industry:  Before and After Covid-19

​These 12 points, two more than the title, summarize the year.  Some key points that David made in his presentation:

• Display Area growth will contract by 0.2% in 2023, before increasing by a CAGR of ~2.4% for the next 3 years.
• MMG mill become mainstream in Gen 8.6+ fabs to improve the efficient glass usage of 65” and larger panels to compete with Gen 10.5 fabs run by BOE and CSoT.
• China will have 14 Gen 5.5 and Gen 6 OLED Fabs by 2024.
• Fab Utilization dropped marginally in 1H20 and all but rigid OLEDs should exceed 2019 levels in 2H20

 
Table 2: Small/Medium Fab Utilization

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• Musing’s Take – When will OEM’s realize they get all of the benefits and none of the extra costs by using rigid OLEDs rather than flexible OLEDs? The Pixel 4a designers took advantage of the lower rigid cost to get to a $349 cost.
• Given the rehabilitated notebook market, David pressed on the range of changes in the display portion of the renewed category, including:
  • Low Power active matrix technology
  • Mini LED backlights for higher outdoor luminance and contrast
  • Multi refresh rates
  • OLEDs/Hybrid OLEDs
  • Narrowing aspect ratios  (3:2,16:10)
  • 3/4 side slim border
  • Rising color gamut’s
• The current high cost adder for Mini LED backlight, + $154 to a $85 12.9” LCD; + $1826 to a $472 65” FALD LCD panel
• The cost challenge of micro LED TVs 
  • Samsung’s “The Wall” ---------  $55K/sq. m  (4K)
  • Leyard TWA 0.9 ---------------   $50K/sq. m  (HD)
  • Samsung, LCD 65” Video Wall--$6.5K/sq. m. (4K)
• Omdia’s Expectation that 2020 OLED Smartphones will down 4.1% Y/Y, although the smartphone industry is expected to be down >10% Y/Y.

​Table 3: Smartphone Shipments by Technology