Vertical Divider
iPhone Supply Chain Confirms 80m Units Shipped in Q420
Apple suppliers Cyrus Logic, Skyworks and Qorvo offered relatively accurate content amounts especially for iPhones, not so much for the RF content in iPads. Cirrus also provides content inside of MacBooks, AirPods and iWatches. In order to estimate iPhone unit volumes, revenue for other products must also be estimated. The estimate begins with iPads continues with estimated iPhone content divided by estimated iPhone revenue. The content data came mostly from a presentation by Tech Insights. Apple percentage revenue in December for Cirrus is found in its shareholder letter and for Skyworks in the conference call. Qorvo doesn't provide a quarterly percentage, but did provide yearly numbers for 2018, 2019 and 2020 in its last years report. Its Apple business percentage ranged around 35%. The following table percentage was pushed toward 50% in order to obtain the 75 million units. Qorvo's estimate clearly shows that Apple didn't sell more than 80 million units, although Apple may have used some excess inventory from September to meet demand. The iPhone average ASP at $820 in line with the thinking of Canalys and Counterpoint. Investigating further from past Cirrus revenue, the Y/Y September quarterly revenue reports reveal that Apple likely delayed 10 million units from its normal September sales toward December. In September of 2019, Cirrus reported $490 million versus $450 million in 2020. The $40 million difference represents approximately 10 million iPhone units. The evidence suggests that Apple may have done nothing more than move units from September to December. Among the forecasts from Tech Insights, it forecasted flat iPhone unit sales between CY-2019 and CY-2020 followed by a 10% increase between CY-2020 and CY-2021. (We encourage all of our readers to take the hour time to watch that presentation.) Real growth not just switching between quarter growth, may began in 2021. From: Seeking Alpha
Table 1: iPhone Supplier Revenue and Shipments Estimates
Apple suppliers Cyrus Logic, Skyworks and Qorvo offered relatively accurate content amounts especially for iPhones, not so much for the RF content in iPads. Cirrus also provides content inside of MacBooks, AirPods and iWatches. In order to estimate iPhone unit volumes, revenue for other products must also be estimated. The estimate begins with iPads continues with estimated iPhone content divided by estimated iPhone revenue. The content data came mostly from a presentation by Tech Insights. Apple percentage revenue in December for Cirrus is found in its shareholder letter and for Skyworks in the conference call. Qorvo doesn't provide a quarterly percentage, but did provide yearly numbers for 2018, 2019 and 2020 in its last years report. Its Apple business percentage ranged around 35%. The following table percentage was pushed toward 50% in order to obtain the 75 million units. Qorvo's estimate clearly shows that Apple didn't sell more than 80 million units, although Apple may have used some excess inventory from September to meet demand. The iPhone average ASP at $820 in line with the thinking of Canalys and Counterpoint. Investigating further from past Cirrus revenue, the Y/Y September quarterly revenue reports reveal that Apple likely delayed 10 million units from its normal September sales toward December. In September of 2019, Cirrus reported $490 million versus $450 million in 2020. The $40 million difference represents approximately 10 million iPhone units. The evidence suggests that Apple may have done nothing more than move units from September to December. Among the forecasts from Tech Insights, it forecasted flat iPhone unit sales between CY-2019 and CY-2020 followed by a 10% increase between CY-2020 and CY-2021. (We encourage all of our readers to take the hour time to watch that presentation.) Real growth not just switching between quarter growth, may began in 2021. From: Seeking Alpha
Table 1: iPhone Supplier Revenue and Shipments Estimates
* For Cirrus' wearable content, a recent Cirrus article, Cirrus Logic Unveils More About Its Lucrative Future, provided the source for content and yearly unit volumes. The percentage for the year sold in December was guessed at 35%.
** Two news stories provided unit sales, one for a year and the other for one quarter. Apple provides the revenue. Using the unit sales number calculated, Cirrus Logic revenue was calculated using an average ASP of $4.5. For both Skyworks and Qorvo, 75% of the total ASP for the iPhone was used. Approximately half of the tablets sold use only WIFI capability. Our assumption was that the Wi-Fi___33 only contained approximately half the ASP.
*** Sources: Skyworks call comment at a 20% increase plus the Tech Insight presentation.
** Two news stories provided unit sales, one for a year and the other for one quarter. Apple provides the revenue. Using the unit sales number calculated, Cirrus Logic revenue was calculated using an average ASP of $4.5. For both Skyworks and Qorvo, 75% of the total ASP for the iPhone was used. Approximately half of the tablets sold use only WIFI capability. Our assumption was that the Wi-Fi___33 only contained approximately half the ASP.
*** Sources: Skyworks call comment at a 20% increase plus the Tech Insight presentation.