Vertical Divider
Musing on Economics
Earn More Breed Less
December 22, 2019
In the 21st century, strong population growth was associated with Asia – but this view of the world is changing as the United Nations and Pew Research Center shows that in 2020, five out of the ten most populous countries in the world were located in Asia, but by 2100, five African countries – Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Egypt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – will be among the world’s ten largest. While some Asian countries continue to grow, they will do so at a lower rate and will be surpassed in population by African countries exhibiting faster growth. China and Bangladesh are expected to shrink until 2100, mainly a result of higher standard of living and education that has already begun to lower birth rates. In 1950, four European countries were still among the world’s largest. That number will decrease to one in 2020 and none in 2100.
The number of children born worldwide is already decreasing, but at currently 2.5 children per woman, world population is still growing. UN population researchers found that if the global fertility rate kept dropping at the rate it currently is, it would reach 1.9 children per woman in 2100, at which point the world population would actually be decreasing.
Figure 1: Trends in World’s 10 Most Populous Nations
Earn More Breed Less
December 22, 2019
In the 21st century, strong population growth was associated with Asia – but this view of the world is changing as the United Nations and Pew Research Center shows that in 2020, five out of the ten most populous countries in the world were located in Asia, but by 2100, five African countries – Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Egypt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – will be among the world’s ten largest. While some Asian countries continue to grow, they will do so at a lower rate and will be surpassed in population by African countries exhibiting faster growth. China and Bangladesh are expected to shrink until 2100, mainly a result of higher standard of living and education that has already begun to lower birth rates. In 1950, four European countries were still among the world’s largest. That number will decrease to one in 2020 and none in 2100.
The number of children born worldwide is already decreasing, but at currently 2.5 children per woman, world population is still growing. UN population researchers found that if the global fertility rate kept dropping at the rate it currently is, it would reach 1.9 children per woman in 2100, at which point the world population would actually be decreasing.
- It shows the rise in populations in Africa, notably Nigeria and Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, and so on while China is set for a population fall as a “result of higher standard of living and education that has already begun to lower birth rates”.
- It appears on a global scale; the world’s population has entered a phase of rapidly slowing growth leading to eventual population decline.
- None of us have ever known our entire population to be in decline, but it is what the likes of David Attenborough have been calling for, for years.
Figure 1: Trends in World’s 10 Most Populous Nations
Source: United Nations via Pew Research