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Musing-Weekly Newsletter

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Cold War Hibernates as Tech War Heats Up
 
Wedbush suggests, the technology "cold war" between the United States and China is headed to a new phase, with clear implications for a couple of large. The war ramped up during the Trump administration, analyst Daniel Ives notes - with such milestones as the blocking of the Broadcom/Qualcomm deal, e, a policy excluding companies using US semiconductor tools from selling ICs to Huawei and a drama around social-media hit TikTok that was largely expected to cool with the arrival of a new administration, easing some concerns about retaliation toward tech leaders like Apple, Cisco, Tesla, and against China's semiconductor players.
  • A $250B Senate bill aimed at countering China's rise will raise the tension in a high-stakes poker match.
  • "The unprecedented chip shortage and a host of various cyber-attacks on U.S. enterprises/government agencies have further fanned the flames on this looming UFC match between the U.S. and China," Ives says.
  • Ives writes "…  today, when it comes to AI, 5G, and EVs, along with … the chip supply chain cemented in China/Asia, the tech power race is tiling towards Beijing. As part of its 'Made in China 2025' national strategic plan, the country has gained significant momentum and poses a competitive threat to the U.S., Europe, and the rest of the world."
  • Can a G-7 Summit help President Biden to grow momentum with the rest of Europe around combating China's broader technology threat?
  • "The two U.S. companies disproportionately impacted by this Cold Tech War are clearly Apple and Tesla " Ives says.
  • Nearly all its iPhone production is in China, and Chinese consumers represent 20% of the phone's global sales. Tesla has built its flagship Gigafactory in China, with the country set to make up 40% of all global deliveries by 2022. so far "the bark has been worse than the bite," but the two face clear risks as the battle heats up.
What is sad about this report is the lack of confidence it displays in American’ ingenuity. Why not encourage and help US companies to compete and reduce the constraints placed on them. Whenever, a company gets a foothold in technology (or any other industry), there is enormous pressure to somehow control the entrepreneurial spirit. The latest targets, Apple, Facebook, Google t are some of the leading generators of economic growth. Then when a crisis hits, government thinks nothing of giving billions to companies with a history of positive free cash. The absurdity of the political imbalance is that the IRS is helpless in collecting taxes from Private Equity, mega-Billionaires and Venture Capitalists.

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