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Can OLED Smartphones Reach 560m in 2020?
May 04, 2020
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Last month we showed a Mizuho’s phone forecast, which predicted a 13% Y/Y decrease in 2020 shipments, while OLED smartphones were expected to be up 10% Y/Y from 471m in 2019 to 516m in 2020. 
 
How realistic is it for OLED smartphones to reach a new high?
 
Figure 1: Annual Phone Shipments including OLED Smartphones

Source: OLED-A
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The critical components of OLED smartphone shipments are the Apple and Samsung’s shipments.  In 2019, Apple shipped 133m iPhones using OLED displays and Samsung shipped 259m. In 2020, Apple and Samsung OLED shipments are expected to be 155m and 227m, respectively. 

Table 1: iPhone Shipments by Year and Model #

Source: Mizuho Securities, OLED-A
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​Table 2: Samsung Smartphone Shipments by Year and Model #

Source: Mizuho Securities, OLED-A
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​Figure 2: OLED Smartphones by Year and OEM

Source: Mizuho Securities, OLED-A
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The remaining 281m by non-Samsung panel makers and by Samsung Display for OEMs other than Apple and Samsung Electronics. In 2020, Chinese panel makers are expected to ship 125m OLED panels for smartphones, which means the deficit of 281-125 or 154m smartphone panels would have to be made up by Samsung and LGD. At current utilization rates  and yields, LGD can deliver 85m panels with the remainder (71m) supplied by Samsung. Q120 smartphone shipments were down 20.1% Y/Y and sequentially making the prospect of a growing OLED shipment volume somewhat questionable.
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Table 3: Q120 Smartphone Shipments, Share & Growth

Source: IDC, OLED-A
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