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Ban on Huawei Expected to Reduce Sales by $30b in 2019
June 24, 2019
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In a panel discussion with George Gilder and Nicholas Negroponte, Huawei’s founder and CEO indicated that he was surprised at how aggressively the US has attacked the company and acknowledged that he expects the recent blacklist to reduce sales by ~$30b, keeping 2019 and 2020 sales around $100b, with managers at the firm expecting smartphone sales to decline between 40% and 60% this year.  While the pressure on Huawei from the US mounts, US semiconductor companies have been lobbying the US Commerce Department to ease the restrictions, as the impact on such companies can be dire.  The effort is based on the idea that Huawei products, other than those designed for 5G network equipment, use relatively common semiconductor components and have little security risk, and that the ban obviously will hurt US companies alongside Huawei to the tune of $11b (2018) that Huawei spent with US semiconductor suppliers.
 
Huawei itself has not lobbied the Commerce Department and avers that it has not asked any company to lobby for them since the ban, having already cut back lobbying efforts in the US before the ban, but it seems that there might be some movement from the government due to US company pleadings as they are offering a temporary general license, allowing Huawei to purchase US components as long as they are to help existing customers maintain their equipment and networks.  This is especially important for rural America, as many local carriers have opted for the less expensive Huawei equipment over the last few years, which would have to be replaced if parts were no longer available.  Few if any of those carriers could finance such a reset.