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Apple Pushes Foldable Back to 2024
TF International/KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, was too early on his emergency satellite prediction is predicting the iPhone 14 will include a hole-punch camera design to replace the Apple notch.
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The use of the hole-punch camera means infers that Samsung’s UPC design is either not being implemented on the dedicated Apple fab or doesn’t meet the company’s rigid qualification standard.
According to Kuo, people shouldn’t expect the next iPhone to have an under-display Touch ID, as this technology has been delayed for at least another year.
Kuo writes in a note seen by 9to5Mac:
We have revised our forecast to delay the launch of the iPhone with under-display fingerprint and the foldable iPhone to 2H23 and 2024, respectively, due to lower than expected development progress. We believe this will hurt iPhone shipments in 2022 and 2023.
This is not the first time Kuo reported that Apple was working on this technology, but he now makes it clear that under-display Touch ID will not be ready for the 2022 iPhone lineup.
Recently, in his Power On newsletter, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman said Apple tested under-display Touch ID on the iPhone 13 line, but it didn’t make the cut. He wrote in August:
While Apple had tested in-screen Touch ID for the next flagship iPhones, it won’t make the cut this year. I believe Apple is all-in on Face ID for its higher-end iPhones and its long-term goal is to implement Face ID in the display itself.
Kuo also believes that for 2024, the foldable design may be the most critical selling point for high-end smartphones. Earlier this year, Kuo expected Apple to ship 20 million units of the first foldable iPhone in 2023. The analyst previously said Apple expected to ship between 15 to 20 million of the foldable iPhone in 2023. Now, however, Kuo says that Apple’s release of a foldable iPhone has been delayed until 2024.
Kuo predicted that the device will have a screen between 7.5 and 8 inches.
--At present, the product position of foldable smartphones is mainly to integrate the smartphone and tablet. But we believe that the foldable smartphone is only one of the applications of the foldable design. We predict that foldable devices will blur the product segmentations between smartphones, tablets, and laptops in the future. With its cross-product ecosystems and hardware design advantages, Apple will be the biggest winner in the new foldable device trend.
Apple and LG Display are currently developing a foldable OLED panel together. It is said that the in-folding display panel employing etching for a decrease in thickness is likely to be a 7.5-inch panel and Apple’s first foldable smartphone is likely to be a clamshell smartphone.
“Apple will not be able to lead the foldable smartphone market for a while with the market being led by Samsung Electronics and Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei and Xiaomi releasing such products,” said an industry source. According to market research firm DSCC, Samsung Electronics’ share in this market amounted to 87 percent last year and is unlikely to fall below 75 percent even after the debut of Apple’s first foldable smartphone.
In the meantime, Apple recently unveiled the 13th version of the iPhone, and many are saying that the new phone is not innovative at all. Immediately after the presentation, Samsung Electronics pointed out that the unfoldable phone is the first iPhone with a scan rate of 120 Hz whereas there are already a lot of Samsung smartphones with that rate. The ratio of foldable smartphones in the global smartphone market is expected to increase at an increasing pace. According to Counterpoint Research and Strategy Analytics, the size of the market is estimated to reach 90 million units in 2023 and 100 million units in 2025.
According to Kuo, people shouldn’t expect the next iPhone to have an under-display Touch ID, as this technology has been delayed for at least another year.
Kuo writes in a note seen by 9to5Mac:
We have revised our forecast to delay the launch of the iPhone with under-display fingerprint and the foldable iPhone to 2H23 and 2024, respectively, due to lower than expected development progress. We believe this will hurt iPhone shipments in 2022 and 2023.
This is not the first time Kuo reported that Apple was working on this technology, but he now makes it clear that under-display Touch ID will not be ready for the 2022 iPhone lineup.
Recently, in his Power On newsletter, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman said Apple tested under-display Touch ID on the iPhone 13 line, but it didn’t make the cut. He wrote in August:
While Apple had tested in-screen Touch ID for the next flagship iPhones, it won’t make the cut this year. I believe Apple is all-in on Face ID for its higher-end iPhones and its long-term goal is to implement Face ID in the display itself.
Kuo also believes that for 2024, the foldable design may be the most critical selling point for high-end smartphones. Earlier this year, Kuo expected Apple to ship 20 million units of the first foldable iPhone in 2023. The analyst previously said Apple expected to ship between 15 to 20 million of the foldable iPhone in 2023. Now, however, Kuo says that Apple’s release of a foldable iPhone has been delayed until 2024.
Kuo predicted that the device will have a screen between 7.5 and 8 inches.
--At present, the product position of foldable smartphones is mainly to integrate the smartphone and tablet. But we believe that the foldable smartphone is only one of the applications of the foldable design. We predict that foldable devices will blur the product segmentations between smartphones, tablets, and laptops in the future. With its cross-product ecosystems and hardware design advantages, Apple will be the biggest winner in the new foldable device trend.
Apple and LG Display are currently developing a foldable OLED panel together. It is said that the in-folding display panel employing etching for a decrease in thickness is likely to be a 7.5-inch panel and Apple’s first foldable smartphone is likely to be a clamshell smartphone.
“Apple will not be able to lead the foldable smartphone market for a while with the market being led by Samsung Electronics and Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei and Xiaomi releasing such products,” said an industry source. According to market research firm DSCC, Samsung Electronics’ share in this market amounted to 87 percent last year and is unlikely to fall below 75 percent even after the debut of Apple’s first foldable smartphone.
In the meantime, Apple recently unveiled the 13th version of the iPhone, and many are saying that the new phone is not innovative at all. Immediately after the presentation, Samsung Electronics pointed out that the unfoldable phone is the first iPhone with a scan rate of 120 Hz whereas there are already a lot of Samsung smartphones with that rate. The ratio of foldable smartphones in the global smartphone market is expected to increase at an increasing pace. According to Counterpoint Research and Strategy Analytics, the size of the market is estimated to reach 90 million units in 2023 and 100 million units in 2025.
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