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Apple Expected to Lead 5G Smartphone Shipments w/36% Share
March 22, 2020
Mizuho maintains their outlook for the supply matrix (i.e., who supplies who) anticipating Apple will use Qualcomm’s 5G modem for all new iPhones it launches in 2020. Samsung Electronics will use its modems in some regions and Qualcomm’s in others. Samsung Electronics should take up more Qualcomm modems than it typically does because its 2020 modems lag behind Qualcomm’s in terms of function, and because Samsung Electronics’ Foundry is lacking in production capacity. As for Samsung LSI’s, the company should ship 28m 5G SoCs, which is lower than its current shipment target of around 35m for 2020, due to: 1) weaker-than-expected Samsung Mobile flagship smartphone sales due to deteriorating demand from the coronavirus, 2) Samsung Foundry’s (LSI) lower-than-expected yield at its 7nm node, and 3) intensifying SoC competition in the mid/high-end 5G SoC market from Qualcomm and MediaTek.
Huawei will use its own SoC (HiSilicon), but it may also use Mediatek’s in some devices (assume 10% 5G SoC order allocation to MediaTek). Xiaomi and OPPO will use Qualcomm and Mediatek 5G SoC, while we expect Vivo to use Qualcomm, Mediatek, and Samsung Electronics modems.
Table 1: 5G Smartphone Forecast By Brand (Base Scenario m units)
Apple Expected to Lead 5G Smartphone Shipments w/36% Share
March 22, 2020
Mizuho maintains their outlook for the supply matrix (i.e., who supplies who) anticipating Apple will use Qualcomm’s 5G modem for all new iPhones it launches in 2020. Samsung Electronics will use its modems in some regions and Qualcomm’s in others. Samsung Electronics should take up more Qualcomm modems than it typically does because its 2020 modems lag behind Qualcomm’s in terms of function, and because Samsung Electronics’ Foundry is lacking in production capacity. As for Samsung LSI’s, the company should ship 28m 5G SoCs, which is lower than its current shipment target of around 35m for 2020, due to: 1) weaker-than-expected Samsung Mobile flagship smartphone sales due to deteriorating demand from the coronavirus, 2) Samsung Foundry’s (LSI) lower-than-expected yield at its 7nm node, and 3) intensifying SoC competition in the mid/high-end 5G SoC market from Qualcomm and MediaTek.
Huawei will use its own SoC (HiSilicon), but it may also use Mediatek’s in some devices (assume 10% 5G SoC order allocation to MediaTek). Xiaomi and OPPO will use Qualcomm and Mediatek 5G SoC, while we expect Vivo to use Qualcomm, Mediatek, and Samsung Electronics modems.
Table 1: 5G Smartphone Forecast By Brand (Base Scenario m units)
Source: Mizuho Securities Equity Research
5G smartphone SoC/modem shipment forecast for 2020 was drooped to 242m from 314m based on the 5G smartphone forecast.
Table 2: 5G SOC/Modem Forecast by Chipmaker
Source: Mizuho Securities Equity Research