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Another Lean Year for Smartphones Predicted by IDC
June 4, 2018


IDC reported that smartphone shipments declined 0.3% in 2017 and are expected to contract again in 2018 before returning to growth in 2019 and beyond. Smartphone shipment growth is expected to be stimulated by foldable form factors and the release of 5G in 2019. Smartphone shipments are forecast to drop 0.2% in 2018 to 1.462 billion units compared to 1.465 billion in 2017 and 1.469 billion in 2016, said IDC, which added that the market is to grow roughly 3% annually from 2019 onwards to reach 1.654 billion in 2022 with a five-year CAGR of 2.5%. The biggest driver of the 2017 downturn was China, which saw its smartphone market decline 4.9% on year. Tough times are expected to continue in 2018 as IDC forecasts consumption in China to decline another 7.1% before flattening out in 2019. The biggest upside in Asia/Pacific continues to be India with volumes expected to grow 14% and 16%, respectively in 2018 and 2019. China-based OEMs will continue their strategy of selling large volumes of low-end devices by shifting their focus from China to India. Outside of Asia/Pacific, the biggest regions for growth will be the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. All three regions have relatively low penetration rates and plenty of upsides. IDC predicted the first commercially ready 5G smartphones will appear in the second half of 2019 with a ramp up across most regions happening in 2020. 5G smartphones will account for 7% of all smartphones in 2020 or 212 million in total. The share of 5G devices should grow to 18% of total volumes by 2022. The ASP of a smartphone will reach US$345 in 2018, up 10.3% from the US$313 in 2017, IDC said. By 2022, the ASP will be US$362, resulting in a 5-year CAGR of 2.9%. Meanwhile, Android's share of total smartphones is expected to remain relatively stable at 85% of total shipments worldwide. Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.5%, with shipments totaling 1.41 billion units by 2022. Shipments of iPhone devices are expected to grow 2.6% to 221 million in 2018. IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, reaching 242 million by 2022.