Vertical Divider

8K TV Sales Still Lagging – the Covid-19 or Our Eyes?
​
Expectations for 8K TV in 2020 were ~250,000 units out of ~220+m TV units  As the holiday season approaches discounting on 8K TVs has begun and Chinese brands have already started ‘undercutting’ with each release of 8K models. Skyworth has a 65” 8K model for ~$1800 and a 75” model for ~$2200 and Changhong has  a 55” 8K model for ~$600 and a 75” 8K model for ~$1,320, far below the prices in the US. The table below shows prices for Samsung’s 8K TV line and how they have changed this year.  While it seems lows were hit a bit earlier this month, we expect more discounting to occur as we move further into the holidays, and Samsung begins to slip out details of its 2021 8K line, which we expect to be announced a bit earlier than usual (likely February) next year in a virtual event.  Save your 8K pennies for another year.

Table 1: Samsung 2020 8K TV Line

Source: ABI Research

ABI Research ascribes the low sales to high prices, lack of content, and the pandemic. Everything that’s down seems to be caused by Covid-19. The 2020 Olympics in Tokyo was supposed to be the first major event to be shot in 8K resolution, and broadcast in 8K in Japan. Some industry observers viewed it as the first major step for 8K. Then came the coronavirus.
 
- "There had been much anticipation of 8K TV market growth given the 8K broadcast content scheduled for Summer 2020 Olympics. However, 2020 Olympics’ postponement combined with the overall economic downturn has resulted in low 8K TV unit shipments in 2020," said Khin Sandi Lynn, Industry Analyst, ABI Research.
 
- "Although 8K TV set price points have declined from a year ago, the cost of most 8K TV sets is still relatively high ranging from $3,500 to $30,000. High cost and lack of content will delay 8K TV set adoptions. ABI Research estimates only around 1% of worldwide flat panel TV shipments will be 8K TV sets in 2021," Lynn concluded.
 
While 8K TV sales are expected to remain sluggish in 2021, ABI Research sees upside ahead for game consoles. The firm is forecasting sales of 40 million console units in 2020, a 6% increase from 2019, with next-gen consoles to "further drive the game console market" in 2021. The consoles may offer 8K video streaming later in their life cycle but Microsoft is cautioning that we are years away from 8K being a standard in video games.
 
A double-blind study carried out by Pixar, Amazon, LG, ASC and Warner Bros found that few viewers can tell see the difference between 8K and 4K content on an 88-inch 8K OLED TVs, according to a report by Techhive. Multiple TV makers have started selling 8K TVs but there has not been much research into the benefits of 8K TVs. FlatpanelsHD has also found that some of the early 8K TVs are not capable of reproducing 8K resolution and last year we advised our readers not to buy an 8K TV of any type. A comprehensive, double-blind study carried out by Pixar, Amazon, LG, American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), and Warner Bros - and described in impressive detail by Techhive - has now examined the subject, with the goal of finding out if viewers can see a difference between 4K and 8K.
 
Table 2: 4K vs. 8K Test Description

Source: Techhive

For the double-blind study seven different native 8K HDR10 video clips (see box on the right above) were shown on an 88-inch 8K OLED TV (LG 88Z9) to 139 participants over three days. Participants were seated in two rows at about five and nine feet from the screen, respectively. The 4K clips were downscaled from the 8K clips and then upscaled again to 8K on a PC using four-pixel duplication (cubic).
 
- "In each session, the 4K and 8K versions of each clip were played in three sequences, though the sequences for each clip were not presented one immediately after another. In two of the sequences, the 4K and 8K versions were randomly assigned the labels “A” and “B” and played twice in an alternating manner—that is, A-B-A-B—after which the participants indicated which one looked better on a scoring form (see Fig. 3). In the third sequence, the 4K version was played four times, though the participants still saw the labels “A” and “B” alternate and scored them as before. This provided a control group to assure more robust statistics," Techhive explained and added that "each participant was evaluated for their visual acuity".
The study that also took into account the viewers' visual acuity, for example 20/20 vision or 20/10 vision, results were presented in several different ways.
 
"In the average of all results, the 8K clips were rated 'marginally slightly better' than the 4K clips," said Techhive.
 
When evaluating only results from viewers with better 20/10 vision, two 8K clips (A Bug's Life and the nature footage) were rated "slightly better" than the 4K clips. Lastly, all "slightly better", "better" and "much better" responses were combined into a single "better" score to account for the nuance that people may have different perspectives on what is, for example, "slightly better" as opposed to "better". The outcome was these two graphs.

Figure 1: ​Left: Distribution Of Scores - Right: 3 Grades Of "Better" Combined Into Single Score

Source: flatpanelshd

Some viewers rated the 4K version higher than the 8K version, which obviously should not happen.
 
"I believe the reason you see a large number of people rating ‘4K better than 8K’ is that they really can’t see a difference and are simply guessing. The more interesting point is the fact that for all clips except Clip 7 , most people scored ‘4K the same as 8K.’ And ‘8K better than 4K’ is second most scored option. For Clip 7, it’s different, and most people scored ‘8K better than 4K,’ which was an interesting take-away," said Michael Zink, VP of Technology, Warner Bros.