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Creating a Super-Cycle for High End Smartphones
Smartphone OEMs are faced with the challenge of creating new demand to overcome consumer lethargy, resulting from an installed base of over 4b phones penetration (which in all likelihood exceeds 90% of North America, China, Europe, Japan and Korean population). The average hold time is now 4 years due in part to rising prices. But the industry could be on the cusp of a major growth spurt. What high end consumers want is a large display to watch videos, a smaller display to conduct normal business, a thin form factor so the phone fits easily in a pocket and an ASP between $750 and $900. 5G, fast processors and high performance cameras already exist. The work by Samsung and others in solving the technical challenges of foldable displays has been a powerful but expensive first step. The Z Fold 3 will meet most of the requirements of a next generation phone, VRR up to 120 Hz, 16MB under panel camera (UPC) under panel fingerprint sensor no notch, the S pen for productivity, thinner form factor due to the combination of color filter on encapsulation, black PDL, black matrix and elimination of the circular polarizer, a triple-lens rear camera, with 3x telephoto, wide-angle, and ultrawide angle lenses, a 6.2” exterior display and 7.6” interior display. However, it is expected to be as thick as the Z Fold 2 (13.8 mm and 16.8 mm) which is almost twice as thick as the Galaxy S Pro’s 8.8mm and carry a $1,999 initial price.
Other advances to finish out the product include:
The recent plethora of rollable prototypes could solve the thickness problem but will exacerbate the cost problem. The cost of a flexible display is around $70. Increasing the size and making it foldable probably more than doubles the price to $150, adding the external flexible display adds another $70, bringing the display cost to $220 vs. $70 for a brick phone. Introducing the rollable approach only add costs, at least in the short term. Samsung’s announcement at DisplayWeek indicates a rollable could be available as early as 2022, but a $1,000 price is still years away. Just compare the $68,000 price of LG’ 65” rollable OLED to its best 65” fixed TV, at $3000.
The potential of true wireless charging could have a form factor and cost reduction impact, if the battery size is reduced due to the eventual “always” available charging feature.
Smartphone OEMs are faced with the challenge of creating new demand to overcome consumer lethargy, resulting from an installed base of over 4b phones penetration (which in all likelihood exceeds 90% of North America, China, Europe, Japan and Korean population). The average hold time is now 4 years due in part to rising prices. But the industry could be on the cusp of a major growth spurt. What high end consumers want is a large display to watch videos, a smaller display to conduct normal business, a thin form factor so the phone fits easily in a pocket and an ASP between $750 and $900. 5G, fast processors and high performance cameras already exist. The work by Samsung and others in solving the technical challenges of foldable displays has been a powerful but expensive first step. The Z Fold 3 will meet most of the requirements of a next generation phone, VRR up to 120 Hz, 16MB under panel camera (UPC) under panel fingerprint sensor no notch, the S pen for productivity, thinner form factor due to the combination of color filter on encapsulation, black PDL, black matrix and elimination of the circular polarizer, a triple-lens rear camera, with 3x telephoto, wide-angle, and ultrawide angle lenses, a 6.2” exterior display and 7.6” interior display. However, it is expected to be as thick as the Z Fold 2 (13.8 mm and 16.8 mm) which is almost twice as thick as the Galaxy S Pro’s 8.8mm and carry a $1,999 initial price.
Other advances to finish out the product include:
- No Charging Port -- By introducing a wireless magnetic charger in iPhone 12, Apple feels quite confident in removing the charging port of their smartphone. Removing the charging port allows sealing smartphones with more efficiency and getting better IP rating. Using a smartphone under 20 feet is acceptable with an IP68 rating. But removing the charging port can get rid of every hole that lets water in. Apple got rid of the 3.5mm audio jack with their iPhone 7 and never brought this feature back in their devices. The trend continued and if Apple did the same thing with the charging port, chances are higher that other brands will follow the trend for sure.
- Super-Fast wireless charging -- Wireless charging is popular in the mid-range segment and making its way to affordable smartphones also. Super-fast wireless charging feature will be available in most smartphones in the upcoming five years. One Plus has introduced their new flagship 9 Pro model with 50W wireless charging. Getting super-fast wireless charging will take things to the next level. Brands like Apple are not taking much interest in fast charging because charging a battery at a faster rate can decrease the battery lifespan and overheat your device also. So, we can expect better batteries that can handle more voltage without heating.
- Split UI could power the foldables of the future. Samsung is already futureproofing its foldable phone software, with a leak revealing an adaptive user interface called “Split UI” that's allegedly coming to the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 3. Rather than developing a different software for every foldable phone design it produces, Samsung is using a one-size fits all approach. (Image credit: Ice Universe). The benefit is the split-screen experience is consistent alongside all Samsung foldable.
The recent plethora of rollable prototypes could solve the thickness problem but will exacerbate the cost problem. The cost of a flexible display is around $70. Increasing the size and making it foldable probably more than doubles the price to $150, adding the external flexible display adds another $70, bringing the display cost to $220 vs. $70 for a brick phone. Introducing the rollable approach only add costs, at least in the short term. Samsung’s announcement at DisplayWeek indicates a rollable could be available as early as 2022, but a $1,000 price is still years away. Just compare the $68,000 price of LG’ 65” rollable OLED to its best 65” fixed TV, at $3000.
The potential of true wireless charging could have a form factor and cost reduction impact, if the battery size is reduced due to the eventual “always” available charging feature.
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Barry Young
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