Vertical Divider
Apple’s iPhones for 2020
December 15, 2019
Apple is expected to release four new iPhone OLED models in 2020; one 6.67" model, two 6.06" models, and one 5.42" model in addition to an LCD model the SE expected to launched in April; Two of these devices (6.67" device and one of the 6.06" models) will support 5G and the remaining two devices will support 4G. Specifically, the 6.7” model will support millimeter wave and sub-6 GHz spectrums and one of the 6.06” models will support the sub-6 GHz spectrum.
Several reports indicate that all 2020 models will support 5G because they will be equipped with the Qualcomm X55 5G modem but the X55 modem also supports 4G. Some indicated that all new 2020 models support 5G, with the 6.67” model and one of the 6.06” models supporting millimeter wave and sub-6 GHz, and the other 6.06” model and the 5.42” model supporting sub-6 GHz, because there is more need for components and materials including AiP related that make a device millimeter wave compatible, and some shared components and materials such as SL-PCB are only for millimeter wave and sub-6 GHz. The iPhone is essentially on a two-year cycle, meaning the 2020 models will act as the basis for the 2021 models. Furthermore, the difference in bill of materials costs between 4G models and sub-6 GHz 5G models is not that wide.
In 2019, sales of the iPhone 8 and XR were strong due to a $150 price cut, and the 11 ($50 cheaper than the XR) also sold well. However, sales of the triple-camera 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max (which are sold at the same price as their respective 2018 models) slumped. It is likely bill of materials costs will rise for the 2020 models (higher costs for 5G, cameras, ToF sensors, and casings to outweigh declines for displays and memory, around $90 higher for millimeter wave and $60 higher for Sub6) and will be passed on to the customer.
Production plans for 5G smartphones (including Android ~300m) are extremely elevated and there is a risk of bottlenecks for foundry production capacity and for some components and materials.
In addition to the above, eyeing full adoption of Rear 3D Sensing in 2021. Also expect launch of AR goggles and other peripheral devices in 2022.
Table 1: iPhone 2020, 5G, Camera and Sensor
December 15, 2019
Apple is expected to release four new iPhone OLED models in 2020; one 6.67" model, two 6.06" models, and one 5.42" model in addition to an LCD model the SE expected to launched in April; Two of these devices (6.67" device and one of the 6.06" models) will support 5G and the remaining two devices will support 4G. Specifically, the 6.7” model will support millimeter wave and sub-6 GHz spectrums and one of the 6.06” models will support the sub-6 GHz spectrum.
Several reports indicate that all 2020 models will support 5G because they will be equipped with the Qualcomm X55 5G modem but the X55 modem also supports 4G. Some indicated that all new 2020 models support 5G, with the 6.67” model and one of the 6.06” models supporting millimeter wave and sub-6 GHz, and the other 6.06” model and the 5.42” model supporting sub-6 GHz, because there is more need for components and materials including AiP related that make a device millimeter wave compatible, and some shared components and materials such as SL-PCB are only for millimeter wave and sub-6 GHz. The iPhone is essentially on a two-year cycle, meaning the 2020 models will act as the basis for the 2021 models. Furthermore, the difference in bill of materials costs between 4G models and sub-6 GHz 5G models is not that wide.
In 2019, sales of the iPhone 8 and XR were strong due to a $150 price cut, and the 11 ($50 cheaper than the XR) also sold well. However, sales of the triple-camera 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max (which are sold at the same price as their respective 2018 models) slumped. It is likely bill of materials costs will rise for the 2020 models (higher costs for 5G, cameras, ToF sensors, and casings to outweigh declines for displays and memory, around $90 higher for millimeter wave and $60 higher for Sub6) and will be passed on to the customer.
Production plans for 5G smartphones (including Android ~300m) are extremely elevated and there is a risk of bottlenecks for foundry production capacity and for some components and materials.
- 2020 models: Expect all OLED (4 models) and large spec changes. LCD only expected in the SE 2 (4.7”) to be launched in spring.
- 2 OLED models (5.42”/6.67”): ★ below might be limited to 6.67” model only
- 5G compatible for 6.67”: sub-6GHZ (and millimeter wave)(★). Chip set products will be procured from Qualcomm. Major changes in design,
- Chassis: Even if current glass + metal frame remains, the structure could get much more complex (more processes), with major changes to materials, design, and exterior look
- Display: Change in size. Notch to hole transition delayed to 2021. For 5.42”/6.67”, OLED+TP (Y-Octa), with SDC as the sole supplier.
- Application processor: 5nm+EUV. 5G compatible + stronger AI + stronger AR?
- DRAM switch to 6GB(6.67”)/4GB(5.42”), NAND to 256GB/512GB. Focus on cost reduction.
- – Rear Camera: 12MP sensor, enlarged to 1/2.0” (★). Wide (OIS) +Tele (OIS) +Super Wide (fixed). 7p lens for wide, antireflection for Super Wide. No changes to front camera (still 12MP). (6.67”+6.06” )
- Rear 3D Sensing module: Utilizes laser light source + ToF sensor (by Sony)method.
- New OLED model (replaces 6.06” model)
- 5G compatible: One model for sub 6GHz/mmWave, one for 4G or 5G(Sub6). Major changes in design, such as substrates and antennas.
- Chassis: Even if current glass + metal frame remains, the structure could get much more complex (more processes), with major changes to materials, design, and exterior look
- Display: Use OLED panels (SDC, LGD) Resolution likely to rise to 458ppi, making it better than the 5.42” model
- Application processor: 5G compatible + stronger AI + stronger AR?
- –DRAM: 6GB(higher price), 4GB(lower one)4 or 6GB. NAND: 256/512GB. Focus on cost reduction.
- – Rear Camera: Sensor unchanged at 12MP, 1/2.4”. Two types: Triple camera: Wide (OIS) + Tele (OIS) + Super Wide (fixed); and double camera: same as in 2019.
In addition to the above, eyeing full adoption of Rear 3D Sensing in 2021. Also expect launch of AR goggles and other peripheral devices in 2022.
- SE2: A model based on the iPhone8 (4.7”) with new housing and AP (Intel) launched in spring. Planned number of units is around 26M.
- From 2021: Minor changes in 1H. Launch of two new devices each in 2H?
- Launch AR goggles and other peripheral devices in 2022.
Table 1: iPhone 2020, 5G, Camera and Sensor
Source: Mizuho Securities Equity Research
The smaller module could free up some internal space in iPhone 12 models, potentially paving the way for a slight increase in battery capacity. The SE model, which has a lower price is unlikely to support 5G in 2020.
Figure 1: 2020 OLED iPhone Models
Figure 1: 2020 OLED iPhone Models
Source: Mizuho Securities Equity Research
The report claims the smaller module would be supplied by Korea's ITM Semiconductor. A battery protection circuit helps to prevent over-charging and over-discharging. The new module from ITM Semiconductor combines the protection circuit with a MOSFET and PCB, eliminating the need for a holder case.
Figure 2: PCM vs. PCP Designs
Figure 2: PCM vs. PCP Designs
Source: ITM Semiconductor
In a separate report, The Elec claimed that ITM Semiconductor has already supplied the new modules to Samsung for the Galaxy S11. Apple is expected to release four high-end iPhones in 2020, including one 5.4-inch model, two 6.1-inch models, and one 6.7-inch model. All four devices are expected to have OLED displays, 5G support, a new iPhone 4-like metal frame, up to 6GB of RAM, up to triple-lens rear cameras with 3D sensing, and more. The iPhone 11 Pro Max has the largest battery life of any iPhone ever, lasting up to five hours longer than the iPhone XS Max per charge.