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Market Research
5G Smartphone Shipment Forecast Drops by 29%
March 22, 2020
Mizuho lowered their 2020 smartphone production estimate by 28.6% from 280m to 200m (5G adoption rate: 14%) with the ratio of millimeter wave devices to be around 10%, which reflects a change to their 2020 millimeter wave 5G smartphone assumption based on two iPhone models, which will likely account for the majority of millimeter wave smartphones. 5G Smartphone production is lowered from 450m to 440m (30%) for 2021 and from 630m to 650m (43%) for 2022. Production will likely make up for the shortfall in 2H 2021 and be slightly higher than previous estimates for 2022.
There is a bullish scenario, where supply chain issues in China may boost demand for 5G devices in China. 5G smartphone production of 279m (5G adoption rate 19%) for 2020 is on par with our previous base scenario. 545m (37%) for 2021, and 745m (49%) for 2022. Mizuho previously outlined a bullish scenario for 5G smartphone production at 585m in 2021 and 765m in 2022, which is in aggregate based on the most ambitious plans that Chinese smartphone makers originally had
The forecast is based on;1) Apple adopting 5G for four new iPhones in 2020. one for millimeter wave and one for sub-6 and the remaining three to be sub-6 (previously, they thought two models would be millimeter wave and sub-6 and two would be sub-6). There is a risk that mass production for a 6.7” millimeter wave model may be pushed back to 4Q partly due to development delays for an in-house designed Antenna in Package (AiP). The bullish scenario assumes that production goes as we currently expect with no delays with the production plan. 2) Huawei maintains its aggressive 5G strategy (may make all Shanghai (P/Mate, flagship models) and Beijing (mid/high-end models such as Nova/Honor) devices 5G capable). But shipment and production forecasts due to the company eliminating 4G inventory and declining domestic demand (brought on by the new coronavirus) including a delay in launching low-end 5G models. Smartphone sales outside of China, including Shanghai and Beijing flagship and mid/high-end models, will remain low if users still cannot use Google Mobile Services (GMS). Their bullish scenario calls for sales upside of up to around 100m units if supply chain recovery accelerates and more affordable offers for 5G are provided (e.g., more aggressive subsidy strategy by telecom operators/government) without the company changing its 5G strategy. They also lowered forecasts for OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi to reflect decreased domestic demand in China, 3) Samsung Electronics: has more 4G devices, even among flagship devices (GS20), than Apple and Huawei, showing a somewhat cautious stance toward 5G, which is one reason why the company’s market share in China, which accounts for the majority of 5G device demand this year, is so low. Some GS20 series, Note series, and Fold series devices (flagship lines) as well as some A series devices (mid/high-end) will support 5G, with most supporting sub-6. Mizuho’s 2020 forecast for China sales was lowered from 40m to 28m units due to cutting flagship device production forecast on a slowdown in the South Korean market and because company is likely to take a conservative stance on its production plans on a potential downturn for the overall smartphone market. Also, this 28m forecast is also supported by 5G SoC/Modem supply forecast for those models. The bullish scenario (36M) calls for the company to potentially cover for declines in flagship devices by launching more 5G-enabled A-series devices.
Market Research
5G Smartphone Shipment Forecast Drops by 29%
March 22, 2020
Mizuho lowered their 2020 smartphone production estimate by 28.6% from 280m to 200m (5G adoption rate: 14%) with the ratio of millimeter wave devices to be around 10%, which reflects a change to their 2020 millimeter wave 5G smartphone assumption based on two iPhone models, which will likely account for the majority of millimeter wave smartphones. 5G Smartphone production is lowered from 450m to 440m (30%) for 2021 and from 630m to 650m (43%) for 2022. Production will likely make up for the shortfall in 2H 2021 and be slightly higher than previous estimates for 2022.
There is a bullish scenario, where supply chain issues in China may boost demand for 5G devices in China. 5G smartphone production of 279m (5G adoption rate 19%) for 2020 is on par with our previous base scenario. 545m (37%) for 2021, and 745m (49%) for 2022. Mizuho previously outlined a bullish scenario for 5G smartphone production at 585m in 2021 and 765m in 2022, which is in aggregate based on the most ambitious plans that Chinese smartphone makers originally had
The forecast is based on;1) Apple adopting 5G for four new iPhones in 2020. one for millimeter wave and one for sub-6 and the remaining three to be sub-6 (previously, they thought two models would be millimeter wave and sub-6 and two would be sub-6). There is a risk that mass production for a 6.7” millimeter wave model may be pushed back to 4Q partly due to development delays for an in-house designed Antenna in Package (AiP). The bullish scenario assumes that production goes as we currently expect with no delays with the production plan. 2) Huawei maintains its aggressive 5G strategy (may make all Shanghai (P/Mate, flagship models) and Beijing (mid/high-end models such as Nova/Honor) devices 5G capable). But shipment and production forecasts due to the company eliminating 4G inventory and declining domestic demand (brought on by the new coronavirus) including a delay in launching low-end 5G models. Smartphone sales outside of China, including Shanghai and Beijing flagship and mid/high-end models, will remain low if users still cannot use Google Mobile Services (GMS). Their bullish scenario calls for sales upside of up to around 100m units if supply chain recovery accelerates and more affordable offers for 5G are provided (e.g., more aggressive subsidy strategy by telecom operators/government) without the company changing its 5G strategy. They also lowered forecasts for OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi to reflect decreased domestic demand in China, 3) Samsung Electronics: has more 4G devices, even among flagship devices (GS20), than Apple and Huawei, showing a somewhat cautious stance toward 5G, which is one reason why the company’s market share in China, which accounts for the majority of 5G device demand this year, is so low. Some GS20 series, Note series, and Fold series devices (flagship lines) as well as some A series devices (mid/high-end) will support 5G, with most supporting sub-6. Mizuho’s 2020 forecast for China sales was lowered from 40m to 28m units due to cutting flagship device production forecast on a slowdown in the South Korean market and because company is likely to take a conservative stance on its production plans on a potential downturn for the overall smartphone market. Also, this 28m forecast is also supported by 5G SoC/Modem supply forecast for those models. The bullish scenario (36M) calls for the company to potentially cover for declines in flagship devices by launching more 5G-enabled A-series devices.
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