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5G Installs Marches On, But Without a Usage Case
5G cellular technology isn’t just continuing it’s marching towards ubiquity — and being adopted at a much faster pace than prior-generation 4G LTE, according to industry trade organization 5G Americas. As of December 2020, there are now 143 commercial 5G networks across the globe, 303 commercially available 5G devices, and 229 million total 5G subscriptions, with 225 million in the last year alone. That means 5G adoption is proceeding at a pace four times faster than 4G, 5G Americas notes, making it the “fastest growing mobile technology in history.” The rapid pace of 5G adoption is significant for technical decision makers because the wireless technology is setting the stage for a massive increase in the quantity of data that enterprises will process during this decade. 5G networks promise to improve data speeds by a factor of 10 to 100 times compared with 4G, enabling devices to share both larger chunks and more continuous streams of data, while driving enterprises to adopt edge servers for low latency data processing and serving.
Figure 1: 5G vs. 4G Growth
5G cellular technology isn’t just continuing it’s marching towards ubiquity — and being adopted at a much faster pace than prior-generation 4G LTE, according to industry trade organization 5G Americas. As of December 2020, there are now 143 commercial 5G networks across the globe, 303 commercially available 5G devices, and 229 million total 5G subscriptions, with 225 million in the last year alone. That means 5G adoption is proceeding at a pace four times faster than 4G, 5G Americas notes, making it the “fastest growing mobile technology in history.” The rapid pace of 5G adoption is significant for technical decision makers because the wireless technology is setting the stage for a massive increase in the quantity of data that enterprises will process during this decade. 5G networks promise to improve data speeds by a factor of 10 to 100 times compared with 4G, enabling devices to share both larger chunks and more continuous streams of data, while driving enterprises to adopt edge servers for low latency data processing and serving.
Figure 1: 5G vs. 4G Growth
Significant recent upticks in global adoption suggest that the time for enterprises to embrace 5G is now, rather than later. Beyond consumer applications in smartphones, which include everything from commercial and location data to live video and augmented reality feeds, 5G networks will be the conduits for wireless industrial automation, connected autonomous vehicles, and smart cities. American, Asian, European, and Middle Eastern leaders have consequently pushed for rapid 5G adoption in an effort to speed the digitization of their societies, as well as supporting local development of AI-assisted products and services. As contrasted with last year, 5G advances aren’t just limited to several key countries anymore — adoption is proceeding across the globe. In the last quarter alone, 29 new 5G networks went live, and the total number of networks is expected to grow to 180 worldwide by the end of 2020. Similarly, 5G America suggests that there will be 236 million 5G subscriptions by December 31, a number of subscribers that took 4G LTE four years to achieve. But the growth isn’t necessarily happening evenly across the map. Only 20 of today’s 5G networks are located in North America, Latin America, and the Caribbean, numbers that are still dwarfed by 4G LTE, which is currently used in 145 networks within those regions alone. North America posted 3.4 million 5G subscriptions, up 47% for the last calendar quarter, which notably ended before the release of popular, 5G-compatible iPhone 12 models. But 5G Americas says that the latest standard is “just beginning” to pop up in Latin America and the Caribbean, with fewer than 5,000 total subscriptions across that region — well below prior forecasts. On a positive note, Brazil has increased 5G service availability in urban areas, and 5G spectrum is being allocated for expansions in Chile, the Dominican Republic, and Peru. 5G expansion has continued at a blistering pace in Asia, where South Korea and China have led the region in speeds and breadth of deployment, while some countries in the Middle East have posted impressively fast download rates in smaller geographic areas. European capitals have continued to advance their 5G deployments, delayed somewhat by the need to limit or tear out equipment provided by Huawei.
And Yet
There’s still no compelling reason to jump on board, despite the urging by carriers to do so. There’s no doubt 2020 has presented its own set of unique challenges that have slowed progress but given how the groundwork has been laid for at least five years, some payoff from 5G by now would be expected by now. The potential of 5G remains very exciting, but it’s still very much potential rather than reality. There are too many caveats in 5G, too many heavily invested companies to put an end to the hype, and years before the infrastructure and true benefits will show.
Every flagship and most mid-range phones come with 5G and most standard network contracts include 5G data, so it’s not like 5G can be avoided. This ubiquity gives the dangerous impression it’s a feature one must have. But apart from running a few speed tests to justify the extra monthly cost, what else can be done with it?
It’s essentially the same amorphous generalizations being peddled since before the arrival of the first 5G-ready phones in early 2019. Even the simplest, most basic advantage of 5G — the speed and ability to download an episode of The Mandalorian in 0.00034 seconds — isn’t up to standard yet. If a 5G signal happens to be available, the speed may not always be faster than a strong 4G signal. A recent test of U.S. 5G networks by showed that in many cases the 4G connection was faster than 5G. And while Verizon’s mmWave 5G network won the honor of being “fastest,” the coverage was a feeble 4% of the country — and its just-launched “nationwide 5G” network using Sub-6 isn’t the same speed.
Despite the lack of usefulness, it hasn’t stopped adoption, and there are 228 million 5G subscribers globally, a jump of 66% over the number recorded at summer’s end, according to Omdia’s latest research. It’s a small amount when compared to the 5.82 billion LTE subscribers in the world, but a significant number for a service with very few real-world, everyday benefits over a decent 4G LTE connection.
A Nikkei report found that in South Korea, home to nearly 10 million 5G subscribers, more than 560,000 of them have already decided to switch from a 5G contract back to a 4G contract because they were disappointed with the service. 5G benefits will eventually come, but for now, 5G is still very firmly in early-adopter territory.
The need for connectivity has not diminished, just refocused, and the commercial potential has arguably only grown. Whether it’s opportunities in digital learning, online health care, virtual reality tourism, augmented reality tours of attractions, or multiscreen sporting events viewed at home — all the things 5G is supposed to revolutionize — 2020 seems tailor-made for showcasing what 5G will be able to do in the future. Yet, press releases and stories about how the tech has improved this horrendous year don’t exist. With no actual “killer feature,” 5G has been labeled simply a killer, according to a few demented souls. That’s not a great PR battle to have to fight for your next-generation network rollout, no matter how silly and baseless their claims are.
And Yet
There’s still no compelling reason to jump on board, despite the urging by carriers to do so. There’s no doubt 2020 has presented its own set of unique challenges that have slowed progress but given how the groundwork has been laid for at least five years, some payoff from 5G by now would be expected by now. The potential of 5G remains very exciting, but it’s still very much potential rather than reality. There are too many caveats in 5G, too many heavily invested companies to put an end to the hype, and years before the infrastructure and true benefits will show.
Every flagship and most mid-range phones come with 5G and most standard network contracts include 5G data, so it’s not like 5G can be avoided. This ubiquity gives the dangerous impression it’s a feature one must have. But apart from running a few speed tests to justify the extra monthly cost, what else can be done with it?
- Verizon says 5G has vast commercial applications, will benefit edge computing, be great at concerts and sporting events, and help expand the Internet of Things.
- Qualcomm says basically the same, touting similarly unspecified advancements in mobile apps, video, and “cutting edge user experiences.”
- Ericsson says exciting new startups are finding new ways to use 5G — without actually naming any.
It’s essentially the same amorphous generalizations being peddled since before the arrival of the first 5G-ready phones in early 2019. Even the simplest, most basic advantage of 5G — the speed and ability to download an episode of The Mandalorian in 0.00034 seconds — isn’t up to standard yet. If a 5G signal happens to be available, the speed may not always be faster than a strong 4G signal. A recent test of U.S. 5G networks by showed that in many cases the 4G connection was faster than 5G. And while Verizon’s mmWave 5G network won the honor of being “fastest,” the coverage was a feeble 4% of the country — and its just-launched “nationwide 5G” network using Sub-6 isn’t the same speed.
Despite the lack of usefulness, it hasn’t stopped adoption, and there are 228 million 5G subscribers globally, a jump of 66% over the number recorded at summer’s end, according to Omdia’s latest research. It’s a small amount when compared to the 5.82 billion LTE subscribers in the world, but a significant number for a service with very few real-world, everyday benefits over a decent 4G LTE connection.
A Nikkei report found that in South Korea, home to nearly 10 million 5G subscribers, more than 560,000 of them have already decided to switch from a 5G contract back to a 4G contract because they were disappointed with the service. 5G benefits will eventually come, but for now, 5G is still very firmly in early-adopter territory.
The need for connectivity has not diminished, just refocused, and the commercial potential has arguably only grown. Whether it’s opportunities in digital learning, online health care, virtual reality tourism, augmented reality tours of attractions, or multiscreen sporting events viewed at home — all the things 5G is supposed to revolutionize — 2020 seems tailor-made for showcasing what 5G will be able to do in the future. Yet, press releases and stories about how the tech has improved this horrendous year don’t exist. With no actual “killer feature,” 5G has been labeled simply a killer, according to a few demented souls. That’s not a great PR battle to have to fight for your next-generation network rollout, no matter how silly and baseless their claims are.
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Barry Young
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