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Musing-Weekly Newsletter

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PC Shipments Decline 40% Y/Y in February
March 22, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak began to impact notebook and monitor demand in January when only Dell increased in unit shipments as they worked off previously received orders.  The other 4 out of the top 5 all saw declines.  February saw those declines continue, with the top 5 seeing a decline of ~40% sequentially and slightly less Y/Y.
Just under 90% of all notebook assembly is done in China. Demand is increasing quickly as ‘work at home’ becomes the standard for most “information” workers.  
 
Not every panel maker in China is gearing up quickly and for some it is on a line by line basis: Tianma is expecting to return to 95% utilization on its Gen 5.5 LTPS line in Xiamen; CSoT has Gen 4.5 and Gen 6 lines in Wuhan, which is operating at under 50% of capacity; BOE ‘s B3 Gen 6 a-Si fab in Hefei is operating at ~80% of capacity. A number of BOE’s LTPS and OLED lines are operational, but due to order cutbacks (primarily from Huawei they are operating between 50% and 60% of capacity. 
​
Increases in demand for notebooks and monitors should continue into May, especially as Chinese panel fabs recover and there is a rationale, that once companies see the effectiveness and cost reduction associated with working at home it result in a longer term trend 

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