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LATAM Will Have At Least 25 Operators Launching 5G Networks
 
Counterpoint outlooked the state of 5G in Latin America. LATAM’s 5G networks will have limited coverage, with most of them being non-standalone (NSA) networks. These 25 will be in addition to the nine operators which launched 5G services during 2020.
 

• Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Peru have announced plans to auction spectrum that will enable operators to deploy stand-alone (SA) networks and offer commercial 5G plans.
• 5G phones will unlikely bag more than 5% share in the region. Apple and Samsung will drive the growth of this segment in LATAM during 2021. Although 5G technology will reach the $150-$200 price band smartphones, buyers under this band will instead focus on having a better camera, a bigger screen, or more memory. 5G will not drive smartphone replacement in the region.
• Although the overall economy will continue to struggle, smartphone sales in 2021 are expected to grow more than 19% YoY. Even if there is a second or third wave of COVID-19, the demand will not decline. It will decline only when there is some disruption in the supply chain.
• Huawei’s share will continue to decline. Despite the regime change in the US, the trade ban on the company is unlikely to be lifted soon. Many Chinese brands are entering the region, seeking to grab the share shed by Huawei.
• In 2020, the ASP decreased slightly but consistently each quarter. The entry of newcomers with aggressive plans may trigger a price war. This will benefit consumers and convince them to spend slightly more while acquiring a new smartphone.
• As COVID-19 left many economies shuttered and some governments broke, smartphones will come under the tax scanner in many countries. Although the OEMs might absorb a part of the increased cost, it will ultimately impact the overall smartphone market ASP.
• Online sales are here to stay. In 2020, online sales in LATAM increased by at least 60% YoY. This growth will continue in 2021 but at a slower pace, trapped by the reality that only 55% of the region’s adult population has access to the banking system (according to the Alliance for Financial Inclusion), compared to 95% in Europe.

IoT devices will surge in the region. With the pandemic, many businesses have realized that it is essential to accelerate digital transformation to stay efficient. On the other hand, operators are pushing IoT solutions while looking for a new stream of revenue. At the consumer level, as many people continue to remain stranded at home, smart home and hearable devices will receive an extra boost. In particular, devices related to security, home entertainment and household tasks will be in demand.
 
 
Figure 30: LATAM Technology Share, 2018-2021