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Musing-Weekly Newsletter

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How the UK Will Replace Huawei in their Networks
July 26, 2020
 
Now that the UK has decided not to use Huawei equipment in their 5G network, they are left with two tier one vendors, Nokia and Ericsson plus tier 2 vendors Samsung & ZTE and  several niche players. Market share figures vary, but all three are broadly comparable, all three can deliver a 5G network
  • Nokia is somewhat slower, but Nokia still has signed 73 commercial 5G deals worldwide and is powering 23 live networks globally
  • The deployment decisions are made by private companies (BT, Vodafone, Three, O2), building their commercial network, using shareholder money
  • And those commercial companies made vendor decisions. Some use Huawei, others used Nokia & Ericsson (e.g. O2 uses Ericsson for 5G)
  • As well as 5G Huawei supplies a lot of 3G and 4G networks. So, as well as ripping out the network they are just building and paying for, they will have to rip out the networks that exist, have already been paid for and depreciated - and pay AGAIN for new networks. 
  • Most of BT’s fixed broadband (xDSL, g.fast, FTTP etc.) will need to ripped out and pay for to replace what already exists, delaying any deployment of fiber and rural broadband.
  • Stopping private companies from making commercial decisions to buy Huawei will have to take years and billions (paid for by consumers - or taxpayer after the compensation lawsuit)
 
The issue is NOT who can deliver, both Nokia and Ericsson can. It’s “given companies have built networks using Huawei, how long does it take and what are the consequences of ripping that out and replacing it?”
 
  • How much will it cost?
  • How long will it take?
  • How long will the disruption last?
 

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