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Early Reports Indicate Strong Sales of iPhone XS Max
September 24, 2018

Ming-Chi Kuo reports on iPhone XS and XS Max sales after the new phones launched last weekend. In addition to how much more popular the XS Max is compared to the XS, Kuo has specifics on what storage size and colors are selling best along with some updates on Apple Watch Series 4 sales and projections.

• Kuo believes that iPhone XS Max is selling three to four times better than the smaller XS. With the latest iPhones offering 64GB, 256GB, and a new 512GB option, most consumers are opting for the 256GB models. 
• The analyst believes that there could be a major shortage of 512GB models due to Samsung being the primary supplier of the NAND flash chips. The new gold color along with space gray is the most popular colors for the iPhone XS and XS Max. 
• Kuo raised his estimates for iPhone XS Max shipments 5-10% for the second half of 2018 and is confident XS Max sales will grow into the holiday quarter along with help from the Asia market.

In what could be another big win for Apple, Kuo believes that due to the popularity of the XS Max and 256GB being the best-selling storage size, the average selling price (ASP) for iPhones could come in above the expected $750-$770 range. Kuo predicts that more customers will replace their older phones with the $749 bezel-less iPhone XRthan the iPhone 8/8 Plus. While Apple’s vendors, JDI and LG Display are currently seeing some yield issues with the new display, they should ramp up production significantly to 35-40 million units in the next month.

Even though XS shipments are lower than expected, the strong performance of the XS Max will keep Kuo’s estimate of 75-80 million iPhones intact for 2H 2018.
As for Apple Watch Series 4, Kuo says that it’s selling better than expected and has increased his estimate for 2018 from 18m to 18.5-19.5 million. With Quanta already producing the new Apple Watch at full capacity, increased production will be dependent on Compal getting up and running in November.