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China: First Major Economy to Experience Recovery
July 19, 2020
China’s economy grew 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, returning to growth after a record 6.8% contraction in the first quarter, official data (link in Chinese) showed Thursday, slightly beating the median estimate of 2.9% in a Caixin survey (link in Chinese) of economists. The GDP growth for the first half was still in negative territory, standing at -1.9%.
The recovery varied by industry, with the construction and manufacturing improving most in the second quarter, growing 4.4% in Q2 after shrinking 8.4% in Q1. Agriculture also returned to growth, gaining 0.9% in the first half. While services performed relatively well in the first quarter in comparison to other industries, it did not do as well in the second, growing just 1.9% in Q2 with added value falling 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Notably, official data reported that 5.64 million new urban jobs have been created in the first half of the year, that is 62.7% of the 2020 annual goal. Given the importance of employment this year, we will probably see more jobs created in the next half of the year, and the annual goal over-delivered.
Figure 1: China’s Economic Growth Y/Y GDP
July 19, 2020
China’s economy grew 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, returning to growth after a record 6.8% contraction in the first quarter, official data (link in Chinese) showed Thursday, slightly beating the median estimate of 2.9% in a Caixin survey (link in Chinese) of economists. The GDP growth for the first half was still in negative territory, standing at -1.9%.
The recovery varied by industry, with the construction and manufacturing improving most in the second quarter, growing 4.4% in Q2 after shrinking 8.4% in Q1. Agriculture also returned to growth, gaining 0.9% in the first half. While services performed relatively well in the first quarter in comparison to other industries, it did not do as well in the second, growing just 1.9% in Q2 with added value falling 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Notably, official data reported that 5.64 million new urban jobs have been created in the first half of the year, that is 62.7% of the 2020 annual goal. Given the importance of employment this year, we will probably see more jobs created in the next half of the year, and the annual goal over-delivered.
Figure 1: China’s Economic Growth Y/Y GDP
