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2020 8K Forecasts Hit by COVID-19
April 12, 2020
Expectations that vendors would ramp up global annual shipments of 8K TVs to over one million units will likely not happen until 2021, as prices of these models remain high and the coronavirus pandemic has undermined consumer demand globally.
The outlook comes even though related vendors have rolled out various 8K models, including Samsung's 65-, 75-, 82- and 96-inch QLED 8K TVs, LG's 65-, 75-, 77- and 88-inch OLED models, and similar models from Sharp and other Chinese players. Vendors who had been hoping to ramp up shipments of 8K models to markets including China, Europe and the US - where demand for high-priced TVs is usually higher than other markets - are now unable to promote those models as the pandemic has stalled consumer demand. The postponement of the Tokyo Olympics has also dealt a blow to TV vendors' promotion for 8K TVs.
TV shipments were flat Y/Y in 2019 at 221m according to Mizuho Securities. Mizuho expects TVs to be down slightly in 2020 due to the virus after forecasting growth of 2% to 226M. Looking at the 5-year forecast by region, shipments could grow to 244m at CAGR of 2% assuming the downturn in 2020 is made up in subsequent years. The takeaway is the US shipments will drop by 4.3%, while India and RoAPAC will grow by 14.7% and 13.6% respectively.
Table 1: TV Shipments Forecast 2025
April 12, 2020
Expectations that vendors would ramp up global annual shipments of 8K TVs to over one million units will likely not happen until 2021, as prices of these models remain high and the coronavirus pandemic has undermined consumer demand globally.
The outlook comes even though related vendors have rolled out various 8K models, including Samsung's 65-, 75-, 82- and 96-inch QLED 8K TVs, LG's 65-, 75-, 77- and 88-inch OLED models, and similar models from Sharp and other Chinese players. Vendors who had been hoping to ramp up shipments of 8K models to markets including China, Europe and the US - where demand for high-priced TVs is usually higher than other markets - are now unable to promote those models as the pandemic has stalled consumer demand. The postponement of the Tokyo Olympics has also dealt a blow to TV vendors' promotion for 8K TVs.
TV shipments were flat Y/Y in 2019 at 221m according to Mizuho Securities. Mizuho expects TVs to be down slightly in 2020 due to the virus after forecasting growth of 2% to 226M. Looking at the 5-year forecast by region, shipments could grow to 244m at CAGR of 2% assuming the downturn in 2020 is made up in subsequent years. The takeaway is the US shipments will drop by 4.3%, while India and RoAPAC will grow by 14.7% and 13.6% respectively.
Table 1: TV Shipments Forecast 2025
Source: Counterpoint, Mizuho
Omdia reduced its OLED TV shipment forecast to 3.5 million OLED TV units in 2020 – down from a 5.5 million forecast in late 2019, which Is less than 2019 shipments. Omdia claims the reduction is a function of the late start in production of the Guangzhou fab, which should begin MP in late April. Omdia’s forecast reduction is strange in that without the Guangzhou fab, LG’s capacity in 2020 is the same as 2019. But adding 8 months of the China fab would increase the capacity by 66.7% or 5.6m vs. 2019 capacity, which was ~3.9m.