Musing From an OLED Advocate

Musing for the Week of November 20, 2022
2023 may not be a big growth year, but at least the headwinds seem to be ending as the major panel categories should either be down slightly, or in the case of automotive display up by 5%. In terms of large area display, the utilization reductions at the end of 2022 reduced panel and set inventories in the supply chain, which are getting close to normal levels. But the early buying effects of 2020 and 2021, are expected to mitigate growth in 2023. For smartphones, there is some pent-up demand in China, where the shutdowns kept demand and disposable income down, leading to strong sales by Apple to the high income market, but reductions for all the other income classes. This phenomena are expected to dissipate in 2023. There seems to be no end in the Russia/Ukraine war, so the regions 3% of the world’s population will have little purchasing power.  As to the rest of the world, we are basing our forecasts on low to flat GDP growth.

TV shipments bottomed out in Q121 and have been rising ever since, and are expected to reach ~10% growth by the end of 2023. Monitor shipments, which peaked in Q121 and trended up through Q222, are forecast to be down in 2023.


Notebook shipments , which peaked in peaked in Q121, recovered a bit in early 2022, will trend down thru 2023, but should be higher than pre-pandemic levels and tablets are expected to struggle through 2023. Panel shipments are expected to outpace set shipments as the industry will go into a catch-up mode in 2023.
​The Pixel Fold is now expected to be released in May 2023, with a price matching the Z Fold 4. BOE and CSoT will become the OLED panel supplier for Samsung’s M54, Samsung’s 2nd most popular model at ~30m/year. If the Chinese get all the business, it would increase their production by 30% per annum. As Apple’s release of its 1st VR/MR device ( reportedly called the “Reality One gets closer, targeting the Professional Market at $2000 to $3000, a startup has developed the HoloKit, which turns the iPhone into a MR device for just $200. A new report from an Apple Watcher, claims Apple dumped Mini LEDs for a new iPad in 2024 and a new MacBook in 2025, because of the slow response time; 2/3X slower than a standard LCD and ~5x slower than an OLED. 
Musing Commentary
 
Could 2023 Be the Beginning of a Display Recovery?
 
In 2022, large area LCD suppliers have reduced average utilization to ~65%, resulting in a reduction of panel and set inventories in the supply chain, delayed new construction plans, and saw smartphone shipments reduced to the lowest level in 5 years. Large area supply/demand is expected to remain out of balance thru 2023, OLED TVs shipments will be flat Y/Y, OLED smartphone shipments are expected to grow as Chinese panel makers increase yields, lower ASPs and take a larger share of production. 
The Foldable Corner
 
Pixel Fold Expected in May ‘23_11/20/2022
Leftovers
Apple Using LTPO Panels from LG Display for iPhone 14 Pro _11/13/2022
Foxconn Reduces iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max Output by 3m in Q422_11/13/2022
​Q322 Worldwide Global Semiconductor Industry Sales Down 3% Y/Y, Down 6.3 Q/Q_11/13/2022
Musing on Materials

Selenium-integrated TADF OLED Emitters Developed by China's Shenzhen University _11/06/2022
Musing on Meta Verse

Meta Has Meta Verse Quality Problems_10/16/2022
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Musing on MicroLEDs

Kyocera Developed a New GaN Laser Chip, World's Smallest* to be Mass-Produced from Silicon Working Substrate_11/20/2022


Musing on Production

Samsung MX Changing Suppliers for Fold and Flip_11/20/2022

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​Musing on Technology

Apple Finds MiniLED Displays Too Slow for iPads and MacBooks_11/20/2022

Automotive

Competition for Cockpit Display Orders in Automotive Displays_11/06/2022
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IT

Magnachip Launches Power Management Integrated Circuit (PMIC) for IT Devices with OLED Screens_11/20/2022
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Smartphones

Galaxy M54 OLED to be Supplied by BOE and CSoT_11/20/2022
Leica Introduces the Leitz Phone 2 _11/20/2022
NUU Mobile Corp Reveals the B20_11/20/2022
Positive Reports of Pixel 7/7Pro Performance_11/20/2022
Qualcomm Unveils the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 Chipset_11/20/2022
Transportation
 
AERQ’s Lightweight, Flexible OLED Screens Extend the Use of Displays in Aircraft_11/20/2022
TVs

Samsung Plans to Ship Over 40m TV Sets in 2023, Flat Y/Y_10/30/2022

VR/AR​

​The $129 Holokit X Leverages the iPhone's to Access the Wizard World Of AR._11/20/2022

Wearables
Huami To Launch A New Amazfit Smartwatch In The Indian Market. _11/20/2022
KT&T Develops OLEDoS display w/20,000 nits_11/20/2022
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Q3'2021 Updated Data 

Any Questions, Please Contact Us at sungeun@oled-a.org